A public AMA with Seth Abramson, a lawyer and former criminal investigator whose top-ranked substack, Proof, is engaged in the most comprehensive investigation of insurrectionist kingpins in US media.
How do we get media and others to STOP referring to members of the GOP as conservative? These people are anything but conservative. They're right wing radicals bent on destroying America as a democratic republic. They're fascists and autocrats and it's very important for that terminology be used to describe the other side, but how do we accomplish that? I'm tired of Democrats being tagged as out of touch extremists/socialists/communists, you name it, when it's actually Dems trying to conserve democracy. How do we get this change to happen??
We need a robust independent journalistic corps not beholden on the "bothsidesism" that corporate media has adopted for its own eldritch capitalistic purposes. Sites like Substack aid in that respect, but at the same time, the one (only) valid element of "bothsidesism" is that America has indeed devolved into "sides," so a robust independent journalistic corps will actually be two such corps—one real one and one on the far right pretending that propaganda is journalism. But if one wants accurate depictions of what's happening in America right now, besides a few decent voices in cable TV journalism and on the op-ed pages of major newspapers, indie journalists seem to be taking the lead.
The #BigLie was so named by the author of “On Tyranny-20 Lessons from the 20th Century”, Timothy Snyder. Being an expert in the field and a great communicator, he named the Big tool used by Trump and his ilk. Lies, Alternative Facts, His Narrative …the Big Lie. We need to communicate the damage being done by the lies, projection and deflection. And own the words that they use against us. Socialist is simply anyone who believes in working for the social good. For the people!
Whenever I read your writing, I am struck at how detailed, coherent, and comprehensive it is. I don't understand how you can fully absorb and produce the volume and quality of work that you do. How do you organise the facts and then link then together into a coherent narrative?
It's just the way my mind works. I always look for patterns. But also, as I often say, it helps to be terrible at almost everything else. It really focuses the mind and heart.
I don't know how you find the time! Your political writing, be it here, Twitter, or in print is so detailed and thorough, how can you squeeze gaming, music, and just living into a day?!? I struggle to get the damn laundry done while I have plenty of time to write silly comments like this one!
Wondering if you’ve been following the Epik hack stuff. Looks like Ali Alexander’s dirty fingers were very busy trying to scrub his name from stop the steal pages.
What details re 1/6 are related to tfg's Pentagon personnel changes in Nov 2020? Did those changes facilitate the lack of response to the insurrection?
I believe that they did. But that investigation—by Congress and by independent journalists—is still ongoing. It's notoriously difficult (and we can understand why) to see inside any of the Pentagon's processes. But Trump's attempt to threaten Esper into compliance with his political agenda, and his installation of political stooges Kash Patel and Ezra Cohen-Watnick at the Pentagon makes absolutely clear that, post-election, he wanted a pliant civilian leadership cadre atop the nation's military. I suspect it was this fact, among many others, that so alarmed CJCS General Mark Milley about the possibility of some kind of coup attempt.
Do you think that anything disqualifying to a 2024 run for tfg will be in the new book by Woodward? The indictment against Weisselberg? I'm so hoping crime will catch up to the pig before 2023. Hoping that there is hope to keep him out of 1600.
Honestly, Judith, I think the only true disqualifier to Trump running in 2024 would be if he is in prison—which I am not predicting, and which I'm not even sure would stop him. I'm reminded of the fact that James Traficant once ran for office from prison, if I'm not mistaken. Or maybe it was the former Providence mayor, Buddy Cianci. Or maybe both of them did. The point is, con men of a historically incorrigible character like Donald Trump cannot be truly stopped short of the natural expiration of their lifespan (from old age or disease, I mean). So I do not think any book ever published can single-handedly stop this monster from trying to devour America.
burning question: why did TFG suddenly leave Mar a Lago and abandon his $$$$ new year's eve party? why the sudden return to the WH. had to be something important. Maybe to sign an order prepared by his Defense dept goons? what actions did he take upon arrival? who did he see? Think this is a key to the insurrection plotting and planning by him. Something that was time senstitive. or to do something sneaky before anyone higher up could see it? was it the memo to leave afghanistan on 1/15 that had to be signed? what did he have to do that he couldnt do at mar a lago??? had to be skullduggery.
I think he believed that he needed to be in DC to coordinate the events of January 6—meet with his politicized Secret Service detail chief, with House Freedom Caucus members, with advisers acting as liaisons to the grassroots. He also made his big announcement (which he deliberately left vague) as to his involvement in the events of that day on January 1. Remember too that he started meeting and calling Pentagon folks on January 3 at the latest. And of course his legal team and Team Kraken was in DC. So he needed to be back in DC.
Yes, and I think Trump held back on his pardon of Stone until Stone could prove to him that he had amassed enough resources and cohorts to actually pull off the insurrection; it wouldn't be enough for Trump to pardon Stone for knowledge of "old" malfeasance, he wanted Stone to participate in Trump's "new" thing, i.e., his attempt to hold onto the presidency. When Stone brings along a guy to Mar-a-Lago to "thank Trump" for the pardon, it's clear he's bringing along someone who can attest to that work. Your info about Ali Alexander's brag that it was HE who organized the insurrection suggests there was some internal competition between Alexander and Stone in showing Trump how helpful they actually were to him.
You’ve probably written about this, but why has not more been made of the letter by Christopher Miller several days before Jan. 6th to hold back police, National Guard? This seems very important.
I think we will be hearing a lot about that. Keep in mind that the House January 6 Committee has only just begun its work, and that the Trump-Patel, Trump–Cohen-Watnick, and Trump-Miller communications will be among the most explosive they look into. A wrote a little about this here: https://sethabramson.substack.com/p/breaking-news-former-secretary-of
Hi, Seth! Having watched what’s happening in our country are fully the last several years, it’s clear to me that America is at war, that it is a new kind of warfare we are engaged in, and that our gravest threat is the treasonous Americans working hard to undermine our democracy, and on a much grander and more capable scale than the red scare of McCarthy in the 50’s… if all this is so very clear to me, you and many others, why then is our government apparently so lax in dealing with it now? Can you speculate on what’s holding us back and why?
I've described what we're in right now as the First Reality War, and I think that this very moniker explains why we're held back from acknowledging the fight we're in—it's a new kind of fight, a metaphysical one that's in many respects as dangerous as a physical one (consider that almost the entire COVID-19 death toll is a toll exacted as a result of the First Reality War), and because it's a new kind of fight it's hard for people to see or understand it. As a Cultural Studies scholar, my feeling is that there needs to be a paradigmatic shift in our thinking from postmodernism to metamodernism before we can even begin to understand what that shift has wrought, for instance (as noted) humankind's first war over the very idea of "reality."
Very insightful. And I totally agree. I’d also posit that these kinds of events are asymptomatic of the technological singularity that is only just beginning to happen to humankind, and for which our country seems woefully unprepared for. Bad actors, Russia, China, Israel, Iran, and North Korea, have formed a new ‘Axis of Evil,’ and are moving swiftly to capitalize upon our weakness.
It seems that Putin's takeover of Russia, using his KGB skills, cultivation and control of oligarchs, strong-arm as well as deadly political tactics, and rampant use of disinformation was poised like an impatient puppy on a leash until the existence of our US-invented social media platforms. They unhooked the leash and we are now dealing with the mess.
Then I hope they use those resources to put two and two together. It will send them down a rabbit hole in two yet will assist if they will use it. They should call you in to help them. YOU would be a valuable resource.
My Question is about General Milley. He called his Chinese counterpart because the Chinese general "mistakenly" believed that Trump was planning to attack China; however, Milley also gathered all his military people involved in making a decision about an attack and told them not to do anything unless they came to him first.
My impression from this is that both Milley and his counterpart believed that Trump was planning to attack China.
Instead of picking on Milley for contacting his counterpart in order to calm him down, people should try to find out if Trump was actually planning to attack China in order to create a pretext for staying in power.
I think both men *feared*—with some reasonable evidence in support—that he might attack China rather than, as you say, "believed [he] was planning to" do so.
Seth, has the January 6th commission reached out to you? Have you provided your documents? It seems you have created an outline and all they need to do is follow it! Thank you.
I am not sure at all that Wray is on the right team. He has downplayed right wing terrorism, has not addressed 1/6, did not warn of 1/6, soft pedaled the Kavanaugh investigation. Your thoughts?
I think Wray is a symptom of a well and truly broken system rather than an idiosyncratically "bad" actor. The system—domestic federal law enforcement; international intelligence; Congressional oversight; DOJ—is broken, and no one is fixing it. These units are broken and the ways they interact are broken. I'm not convinced any replacement to Wray would be *appreciably* better, though they might be slightly better.
Is there something WE can do = to legitimately and seriously put pressure on or raise the interest in prosecutions and legitimate punishment? There is evidence, there are crimes, there are charges but nothing else happens & I know putting together a solid case isn't slap dash but seems that there could be [should be??] a focus on a case that will make the point solidly == even if not TFG - some underling[s] = I can't believe TFG is bright or able enough to do all this on his own - he has subalterns and minions and toadies and they can be got.
What's your overall state of optimism/pessimism that there will be accountability for crimes committed by TFG and the Trump family, Giuliani, Stone, Alex Jones, etc., and could you please explain the most important factors driving that assessment?
See my response to "FatCat Frankie" elsewhere in these comments as to the second part of your question. As to the first, I am currently almost precisely balanced between optimism and pessimism, frankly. It's 50/50 for me at the moment.
BTW, that's 50/50 that there will be *some* accountability for *some* people. 100% accountability for all those who require it? That definitely will *not* happen.
Do you think the FBI will further investigate the 4,500 tips regarding Brett Kavanaugh? I am furious about how the trump administration basically stopped any investigation and feel nothing will ever be done unless something is so egregious surfaces when the judiciary committee or FOIA requests unearth it, that it can’t be ignored.
No, I believe the FBI will do nothing about this. Its position is that Donald Trump was (as president) the FBI's "client" in Congress's request for further investigation of Kavanaugh, and therefore it only had to conduct the investigation the GOP wanted—which was essentially none. Now it's too late, sadly.
The latest headline I'm seeing these days is that Trump is trying to put Secretaries of State that believe The Big Lie and will actually listen to him when he asks them to commit fraud. If you've heard this, can you rate how concerned you about this?
Also, I am interested in what you think about Stephen King's Dark Tower series, if you've read it. After reading your early Proof articles on metamodernism, I feel as that series went along, it reminded me of some of your articles (and examples you provided - very kind of you by the way).
The only King I've read is The Eyes of the Dragon, which I love. I dislike horror intensely, but I realize that the Dark Tower is really more fantasy, so I'm not sure why I never got around to it.
I would rate my concern about Trump installing insurrectionist secretaries of state around America at DEFCON 2.
How do we get media and others to STOP referring to members of the GOP as conservative? These people are anything but conservative. They're right wing radicals bent on destroying America as a democratic republic. They're fascists and autocrats and it's very important for that terminology be used to describe the other side, but how do we accomplish that? I'm tired of Democrats being tagged as out of touch extremists/socialists/communists, you name it, when it's actually Dems trying to conserve democracy. How do we get this change to happen??
We need a robust independent journalistic corps not beholden on the "bothsidesism" that corporate media has adopted for its own eldritch capitalistic purposes. Sites like Substack aid in that respect, but at the same time, the one (only) valid element of "bothsidesism" is that America has indeed devolved into "sides," so a robust independent journalistic corps will actually be two such corps—one real one and one on the far right pretending that propaganda is journalism. But if one wants accurate depictions of what's happening in America right now, besides a few decent voices in cable TV journalism and on the op-ed pages of major newspapers, indie journalists seem to be taking the lead.
But the Democrats could stand up to the slurs. To not defend themselves may seem as though they really ARE Communists, Socialists, and baby eaters.
The #BigLie was so named by the author of “On Tyranny-20 Lessons from the 20th Century”, Timothy Snyder. Being an expert in the field and a great communicator, he named the Big tool used by Trump and his ilk. Lies, Alternative Facts, His Narrative …the Big Lie. We need to communicate the damage being done by the lies, projection and deflection. And own the words that they use against us. Socialist is simply anyone who believes in working for the social good. For the people!
Whenever I read your writing, I am struck at how detailed, coherent, and comprehensive it is. I don't understand how you can fully absorb and produce the volume and quality of work that you do. How do you organise the facts and then link then together into a coherent narrative?
It's just the way my mind works. I always look for patterns. But also, as I often say, it helps to be terrible at almost everything else. It really focuses the mind and heart.
I don't know how you find the time! Your political writing, be it here, Twitter, or in print is so detailed and thorough, how can you squeeze gaming, music, and just living into a day?!? I struggle to get the damn laundry done while I have plenty of time to write silly comments like this one!
That made me laugh out loud!
Interesting…maybe you’re HSP or an empath!
Hi Seth!
Wondering if you’ve been following the Epik hack stuff. Looks like Ali Alexander’s dirty fingers were very busy trying to scrub his name from stop the steal pages.
https://t.co/VMOuMcmlx5?amp=1
I haven't—will look into it, thanks.
Please do. It's a big deal with lots of threads to unravel.
What details re 1/6 are related to tfg's Pentagon personnel changes in Nov 2020? Did those changes facilitate the lack of response to the insurrection?
I believe that they did. But that investigation—by Congress and by independent journalists—is still ongoing. It's notoriously difficult (and we can understand why) to see inside any of the Pentagon's processes. But Trump's attempt to threaten Esper into compliance with his political agenda, and his installation of political stooges Kash Patel and Ezra Cohen-Watnick at the Pentagon makes absolutely clear that, post-election, he wanted a pliant civilian leadership cadre atop the nation's military. I suspect it was this fact, among many others, that so alarmed CJCS General Mark Milley about the possibility of some kind of coup attempt.
Hi Seth,
Do you think that anything disqualifying to a 2024 run for tfg will be in the new book by Woodward? The indictment against Weisselberg? I'm so hoping crime will catch up to the pig before 2023. Hoping that there is hope to keep him out of 1600.
Honestly, Judith, I think the only true disqualifier to Trump running in 2024 would be if he is in prison—which I am not predicting, and which I'm not even sure would stop him. I'm reminded of the fact that James Traficant once ran for office from prison, if I'm not mistaken. Or maybe it was the former Providence mayor, Buddy Cianci. Or maybe both of them did. The point is, con men of a historically incorrigible character like Donald Trump cannot be truly stopped short of the natural expiration of their lifespan (from old age or disease, I mean). So I do not think any book ever published can single-handedly stop this monster from trying to devour America.
But he wouldn’t be able to vote. Absurd.
burning question: why did TFG suddenly leave Mar a Lago and abandon his $$$$ new year's eve party? why the sudden return to the WH. had to be something important. Maybe to sign an order prepared by his Defense dept goons? what actions did he take upon arrival? who did he see? Think this is a key to the insurrection plotting and planning by him. Something that was time senstitive. or to do something sneaky before anyone higher up could see it? was it the memo to leave afghanistan on 1/15 that had to be signed? what did he have to do that he couldnt do at mar a lago??? had to be skullduggery.
I think he believed that he needed to be in DC to coordinate the events of January 6—meet with his politicized Secret Service detail chief, with House Freedom Caucus members, with advisers acting as liaisons to the grassroots. He also made his big announcement (which he deliberately left vague) as to his involvement in the events of that day on January 1. Remember too that he started meeting and calling Pentagon folks on January 3 at the latest. And of course his legal team and Team Kraken was in DC. So he needed to be back in DC.
Yes, and I think Trump held back on his pardon of Stone until Stone could prove to him that he had amassed enough resources and cohorts to actually pull off the insurrection; it wouldn't be enough for Trump to pardon Stone for knowledge of "old" malfeasance, he wanted Stone to participate in Trump's "new" thing, i.e., his attempt to hold onto the presidency. When Stone brings along a guy to Mar-a-Lago to "thank Trump" for the pardon, it's clear he's bringing along someone who can attest to that work. Your info about Ali Alexander's brag that it was HE who organized the insurrection suggests there was some internal competition between Alexander and Stone in showing Trump how helpful they actually were to him.
You’ve probably written about this, but why has not more been made of the letter by Christopher Miller several days before Jan. 6th to hold back police, National Guard? This seems very important.
I think we will be hearing a lot about that. Keep in mind that the House January 6 Committee has only just begun its work, and that the Trump-Patel, Trump–Cohen-Watnick, and Trump-Miller communications will be among the most explosive they look into. A wrote a little about this here: https://sethabramson.substack.com/p/breaking-news-former-secretary-of
Hi, Seth! Having watched what’s happening in our country are fully the last several years, it’s clear to me that America is at war, that it is a new kind of warfare we are engaged in, and that our gravest threat is the treasonous Americans working hard to undermine our democracy, and on a much grander and more capable scale than the red scare of McCarthy in the 50’s… if all this is so very clear to me, you and many others, why then is our government apparently so lax in dealing with it now? Can you speculate on what’s holding us back and why?
I've described what we're in right now as the First Reality War, and I think that this very moniker explains why we're held back from acknowledging the fight we're in—it's a new kind of fight, a metaphysical one that's in many respects as dangerous as a physical one (consider that almost the entire COVID-19 death toll is a toll exacted as a result of the First Reality War), and because it's a new kind of fight it's hard for people to see or understand it. As a Cultural Studies scholar, my feeling is that there needs to be a paradigmatic shift in our thinking from postmodernism to metamodernism before we can even begin to understand what that shift has wrought, for instance (as noted) humankind's first war over the very idea of "reality."
Very insightful. And I totally agree. I’d also posit that these kinds of events are asymptomatic of the technological singularity that is only just beginning to happen to humankind, and for which our country seems woefully unprepared for. Bad actors, Russia, China, Israel, Iran, and North Korea, have formed a new ‘Axis of Evil,’ and are moving swiftly to capitalize upon our weakness.
It seems that Putin's takeover of Russia, using his KGB skills, cultivation and control of oligarchs, strong-arm as well as deadly political tactics, and rampant use of disinformation was poised like an impatient puppy on a leash until the existence of our US-invented social media platforms. They unhooked the leash and we are now dealing with the mess.
Do you think any one on the January 6 Commission has read any of your books, tweets or Substack?
Yes.
Then I hope they use those resources to put two and two together. It will send them down a rabbit hole in two yet will assist if they will use it. They should call you in to help them. YOU would be a valuable resource.
My Question is about General Milley. He called his Chinese counterpart because the Chinese general "mistakenly" believed that Trump was planning to attack China; however, Milley also gathered all his military people involved in making a decision about an attack and told them not to do anything unless they came to him first.
My impression from this is that both Milley and his counterpart believed that Trump was planning to attack China.
Instead of picking on Milley for contacting his counterpart in order to calm him down, people should try to find out if Trump was actually planning to attack China in order to create a pretext for staying in power.
I think both men *feared*—with some reasonable evidence in support—that he might attack China rather than, as you say, "believed [he] was planning to" do so.
For sure.
Seth, has the January 6th commission reached out to you? Have you provided your documents? It seems you have created an outline and all they need to do is follow it! Thank you.
Not yet
I am not sure at all that Wray is on the right team. He has downplayed right wing terrorism, has not addressed 1/6, did not warn of 1/6, soft pedaled the Kavanaugh investigation. Your thoughts?
I think Wray is a symptom of a well and truly broken system rather than an idiosyncratically "bad" actor. The system—domestic federal law enforcement; international intelligence; Congressional oversight; DOJ—is broken, and no one is fixing it. These units are broken and the ways they interact are broken. I'm not convinced any replacement to Wray would be *appreciably* better, though they might be slightly better.
Federalist Society being effective??
Is there something WE can do = to legitimately and seriously put pressure on or raise the interest in prosecutions and legitimate punishment? There is evidence, there are crimes, there are charges but nothing else happens & I know putting together a solid case isn't slap dash but seems that there could be [should be??] a focus on a case that will make the point solidly == even if not TFG - some underling[s] = I can't believe TFG is bright or able enough to do all this on his own - he has subalterns and minions and toadies and they can be got.
What's your overall state of optimism/pessimism that there will be accountability for crimes committed by TFG and the Trump family, Giuliani, Stone, Alex Jones, etc., and could you please explain the most important factors driving that assessment?
See my response to "FatCat Frankie" elsewhere in these comments as to the second part of your question. As to the first, I am currently almost precisely balanced between optimism and pessimism, frankly. It's 50/50 for me at the moment.
BTW, that's 50/50 that there will be *some* accountability for *some* people. 100% accountability for all those who require it? That definitely will *not* happen.
Do you think the FBI will further investigate the 4,500 tips regarding Brett Kavanaugh? I am furious about how the trump administration basically stopped any investigation and feel nothing will ever be done unless something is so egregious surfaces when the judiciary committee or FOIA requests unearth it, that it can’t be ignored.
No, I believe the FBI will do nothing about this. Its position is that Donald Trump was (as president) the FBI's "client" in Congress's request for further investigation of Kavanaugh, and therefore it only had to conduct the investigation the GOP wanted—which was essentially none. Now it's too late, sadly.
The latest headline I'm seeing these days is that Trump is trying to put Secretaries of State that believe The Big Lie and will actually listen to him when he asks them to commit fraud. If you've heard this, can you rate how concerned you about this?
Also, I am interested in what you think about Stephen King's Dark Tower series, if you've read it. After reading your early Proof articles on metamodernism, I feel as that series went along, it reminded me of some of your articles (and examples you provided - very kind of you by the way).
The only King I've read is The Eyes of the Dragon, which I love. I dislike horror intensely, but I realize that the Dark Tower is really more fantasy, so I'm not sure why I never got around to it.
I would rate my concern about Trump installing insurrectionist secretaries of state around America at DEFCON 2.
That man should not have that much power. Now, or ever again.