With control of the U.S. House and Senate still up in the air, the question of whether Republicans will seek to impeach President Joe Biden is at once hard to answer and essential to resolve.
What impact would a Trump indictment have on this process?
How LIKELY is it that Garland will indict 1) Trump and 2) House members who may have actively participated in planning Trump’s failed coup eg Greene, Gosar, etc?
And, if Garland does choose to follow the law as he pledged, how will such indictments impact a slim GOP House majority? Or their impeachment ‘mandate’?
You are the one lawyer journalist who surfaces all the issues which is what makes your articles and tweets so compelling.
I know you are strongly in favor of Garland following the law and indicting anyone credibly involved in the J6 coup so if I missed it please let me know, but are you planning to write an article on the impact Garland indictments could have on insurrectionists currently sitting in Congress? And, if not, I sure wish you would! Garland seems to be the wild card many in the corporately owned media would rather not discuss.
Thanks for all your hard work. Being able to read your analyses in real-time was the reason I joined Twitter in 2016, so I am glad to have an alternate, stable site on which to view your articles and posts.
Musk can do his worst but voices like yours will still find an outlet.
I think the thing to remember is that even if an insurrectionist like Paul Gosar or Marjorie Taylor Greene were to be indicted, which at present DOJ shows no appetite for, the special election ultimately held in their district would favor by double digits whichever Republican happened to be running. So even if a Democratic governor in Arizona like Katie Hobbs were to be able to briefly replace Gosar with a Democrat, the balance of power in the House would likely not change even in the medium term. I do believe we will see an indictment of Trump, but it will partly be because Republican powerbrokers are now abandoning him and therefore it is less politically toxic to indict him. That shift has not come about for any members of Congress and so I think Garland’s natural reticence to do anything that might harm either of the two institutions connected to him, the DOJ and FBI, would win out there. This country has been harmed over the last few years by men and women of strong character who nevertheless put their institutions’ well-being above the rule of law.
Is there anything that could be done in the lame duck period to censure or disqualify insurrectionists in Congress from holding committee chairs? It is almost worse than the insurrection itself to have traitors making decisions about the direction the country they were/are intent on destroying will take. Especially since the Constitution explicitly disqualifies insurrectionists from 'serving' in Congress
I am looking forward to additional info in the J-6 report. I hope they don't stint on facts, just because of their insurrectionist congressional brethern and sistern.
Why did we hear so little on "follow the money"? I hope the appropriate committees are still focused on that.
Have your opinions on indictments changed for sitting members of Congress (Gosar, Greene, etc) now that Garland has distanced himself and appointed Jack Smith as SC?
Smith’s resume depicts a prosecutor actively engaged in real world issues as compared to Garland who does not seem to grasp the gravity of the moment.
The whole 'playing politics' part of politics that a Biden impeachment would represent vs politicians actually working to help the American people is probably part of why most Americans seem to just tune out politics, & why the % who vote is so low.
One word - revenge. Trump will want revenge on Biden and the Democrats for his impeachment’s. This plus the fact Trump only wanted Zelenskyy to announce a Hunter Biden investigation would lead me to expect Trump will push hard for at least an impeachment investigation - possibly all the way to the 2024 election as you suggest. While Trump would like to see Biden impeached as he was, that’s where GOP resistance says no. A split the baby approach. To use an old metaphor I’m sure you know. Like reading tea leaves.
Seth, we need you. You are our Democracy Whisperer. You break everything that is political-speak down, so we can understand, and it puts the calm on me. No matter how crazy this MAGA thing gets, hearing the Truth you speak helps me deal. I can handle the Truth- it's not knowing that makes me afraid. Loved the word shellacking- made me even laugh!
Typo? "is one the majority party doesn’t to win." ??
What are the chances that those involved in 1/6 will be removed from Congress via the same article in the Constitution that booted reps out after the civil war?
So it looks like the house will be 222-213, unless the California seat's last batch of votes breaks extremely democratic. Anyhoo - this means that any group of 5 or so R's could block anything, especially an impeachment. Since any impeachment is a waste of time - nobody's going to vote 67+ to remove anyone, not even a SCOTUS judge if (hypothetically) he had helped his wife commit a horrible crime against the nation... Since it won't happen, any impeachment by the house is just theatre.
We'll have to rely on a cabal of sensible Republicans (fortunately as few as 5) to stop this. So now the speculation is whether there are 5 such reps with backbone.
I assume the problem with the house, like previously with the senate under Mitch, is that the Speaker controls the agenda. I wonder what the odds are of a moderate Speaker getting elected by a tiny number of moderate Republicans with the collusion (can I use that word?) of all the Democrats.
"though nothing short of a long prison sentence would technically stop him from appearing on the November 2024 ballot" Sorry, but that did not stop Eugene Debs - unjustly imprisoned by the hate-filled segregationist Democrat Woodrow Wilson - from running for President on the Socialist Party ticket in 1920, still imprisoned 2 years after the end of the war! Speaking of hate-filled vindictiveness! Debs was ultimately let out by the corrupt Republican President, Warren Harding.
Such a good analysis. Thank you Seth
All that so already wealthy people can be even wealthier. Rich people suck. Apologies to all non-greedy rich people.
Is this sense really increasing? Seems to me this has always been much the case.
Excellent, cogent, thorough analysis
Here are my questions:
What impact would a Trump indictment have on this process?
How LIKELY is it that Garland will indict 1) Trump and 2) House members who may have actively participated in planning Trump’s failed coup eg Greene, Gosar, etc?
And, if Garland does choose to follow the law as he pledged, how will such indictments impact a slim GOP House majority? Or their impeachment ‘mandate’?
You are the one lawyer journalist who surfaces all the issues which is what makes your articles and tweets so compelling.
I know you are strongly in favor of Garland following the law and indicting anyone credibly involved in the J6 coup so if I missed it please let me know, but are you planning to write an article on the impact Garland indictments could have on insurrectionists currently sitting in Congress? And, if not, I sure wish you would! Garland seems to be the wild card many in the corporately owned media would rather not discuss.
Thanks for all your hard work. Being able to read your analyses in real-time was the reason I joined Twitter in 2016, so I am glad to have an alternate, stable site on which to view your articles and posts.
Musk can do his worst but voices like yours will still find an outlet.
I think the thing to remember is that even if an insurrectionist like Paul Gosar or Marjorie Taylor Greene were to be indicted, which at present DOJ shows no appetite for, the special election ultimately held in their district would favor by double digits whichever Republican happened to be running. So even if a Democratic governor in Arizona like Katie Hobbs were to be able to briefly replace Gosar with a Democrat, the balance of power in the House would likely not change even in the medium term. I do believe we will see an indictment of Trump, but it will partly be because Republican powerbrokers are now abandoning him and therefore it is less politically toxic to indict him. That shift has not come about for any members of Congress and so I think Garland’s natural reticence to do anything that might harm either of the two institutions connected to him, the DOJ and FBI, would win out there. This country has been harmed over the last few years by men and women of strong character who nevertheless put their institutions’ well-being above the rule of law.
Is there anything that could be done in the lame duck period to censure or disqualify insurrectionists in Congress from holding committee chairs? It is almost worse than the insurrection itself to have traitors making decisions about the direction the country they were/are intent on destroying will take. Especially since the Constitution explicitly disqualifies insurrectionists from 'serving' in Congress
I am looking forward to additional info in the J-6 report. I hope they don't stint on facts, just because of their insurrectionist congressional brethern and sistern.
Why did we hear so little on "follow the money"? I hope the appropriate committees are still focused on that.
I disagree. Trump will be indicted soon under the Espionage Act. Perhaps some of these insurrectionists will also be indicted.
Have your opinions on indictments changed for sitting members of Congress (Gosar, Greene, etc) now that Garland has distanced himself and appointed Jack Smith as SC?
Smith’s resume depicts a prosecutor actively engaged in real world issues as compared to Garland who does not seem to grasp the gravity of the moment.
Thank you .
I'm holding my breath on a Dem House.
The whole 'playing politics' part of politics that a Biden impeachment would represent vs politicians actually working to help the American people is probably part of why most Americans seem to just tune out politics, & why the % who vote is so low.
@GOP $$$
ELON. VLADIMIR. TRUMP.
One word - revenge. Trump will want revenge on Biden and the Democrats for his impeachment’s. This plus the fact Trump only wanted Zelenskyy to announce a Hunter Biden investigation would lead me to expect Trump will push hard for at least an impeachment investigation - possibly all the way to the 2024 election as you suggest. While Trump would like to see Biden impeached as he was, that’s where GOP resistance says no. A split the baby approach. To use an old metaphor I’m sure you know. Like reading tea leaves.
Seth, we need you. You are our Democracy Whisperer. You break everything that is political-speak down, so we can understand, and it puts the calm on me. No matter how crazy this MAGA thing gets, hearing the Truth you speak helps me deal. I can handle the Truth- it's not knowing that makes me afraid. Loved the word shellacking- made me even laugh!
Typo? "is one the majority party doesn’t to win." ??
Fixed, thanks! (And thank you for the kind words!) 😁
100% agree especially ‘the calm’ part. Well put!
100% they will impeach if they take over. Even given all the scenarios listed, I'm guessing it won't take two months.
What are the chances that those involved in 1/6 will be removed from Congress via the same article in the Constitution that booted reps out after the civil war?
In re: photo at the top. Didn't Sen Leahy preside over the 2nd Tr*mp impeachment? Robert's declined because Tr*mp was no longer in office?
So it looks like the house will be 222-213, unless the California seat's last batch of votes breaks extremely democratic. Anyhoo - this means that any group of 5 or so R's could block anything, especially an impeachment. Since any impeachment is a waste of time - nobody's going to vote 67+ to remove anyone, not even a SCOTUS judge if (hypothetically) he had helped his wife commit a horrible crime against the nation... Since it won't happen, any impeachment by the house is just theatre.
We'll have to rely on a cabal of sensible Republicans (fortunately as few as 5) to stop this. So now the speculation is whether there are 5 such reps with backbone.
I assume the problem with the house, like previously with the senate under Mitch, is that the Speaker controls the agenda. I wonder what the odds are of a moderate Speaker getting elected by a tiny number of moderate Republicans with the collusion (can I use that word?) of all the Democrats.
"though nothing short of a long prison sentence would technically stop him from appearing on the November 2024 ballot" Sorry, but that did not stop Eugene Debs - unjustly imprisoned by the hate-filled segregationist Democrat Woodrow Wilson - from running for President on the Socialist Party ticket in 1920, still imprisoned 2 years after the end of the war! Speaking of hate-filled vindictiveness! Debs was ultimately let out by the corrupt Republican President, Warren Harding.
Excellent, clarifying article, Seth. Thank you!
WHY IN THE WORLD WOULD RETHUGLICANS BE SO STUPID AS TO IMPEACH SUCH A WONDERFUL PRESIDENT AS JOE BIDEN? I KNOW; TO PUNISH HIM FOR WINNING 2020.