After falsely accusing Gazan officials of inflating death tolls, Netanyahu confesses to overstating October 7’s death toll by hundreds. But was the error even greater than admitted—and does it matter?
So why did it take this so-called war to raise questions about how many casualties are fact and how many are fiction (and that these numbers are a propaganda weapon for Israel)? What about those "wars" in Gaza every 2 years or so where Israel would bomb Gaza's schools, hospitals, mosques and apartment buildings, kill between 1,000 and 3,000 Palestinians each time, and the western media didn't give a shit except to infer that they deserved it? Really, when Hamas would fire their homemade "rockets" and no Israelis got killed, the serial torment of those "wars" on Gaza were quickly forgotten.
Racism? Yes, partially, but also Christian brainwashing that has taught generations of westerners that Israel's claims are indisputable and that it has an absolute right to slaughter the people whose land they occupy. For us atheists, it stinks more of America's similarly-based "manifest destiny" that fueled the genocide of its indigenous peoples. To this day, Israelis live in homes of Palestinians who were, and are, forced to vacate them. Others are torn down and the land given to Israelis. It is a violation of the Geneva Conventions to destroy buildings under occupation.
When an occupied people are driven into an enclave the size of Philadelphia, are cut off from food, water and medical care, are bombed, shot and starved, and they have already been living that way for decades, just what kind of idiots fail to understand that this is how terrorism begins?
I feel personally relieved to hear the same thing I've been feeling, written by a Jewish person. No one can tell me that it's racist to criticize a country or a policy. Israel is clearly committing war crimes, will it ever stop?
Netanyahu is a corrupt POS who has squandered the goodwill for Israel in the US. As a gesture toward tRump, and Netanyahu’s family friends, the Kushners, he was pivotal in PROVOKING this attack when the US Embassy was moved to Jerusalem. He capped it off by having Israeli soldiers open fire on unarmed Palestinian protestors. It was no coincidence that PUTIN personally drove in the convoy that invaded Crimea that same day. Netanyahu, like tRump, thought he had a pal in Putin. This performative gesture went against decades of foreign policy, and IT WAS PROVOCATIVE. Yet, in his arrogance, he blew off intelligence reports of a Hamas attack--his pal, Putin, wouldn’t give the okay for such a thing, right?
Recently, ACCORDING TO REUTERS, Iran informed Hamas that they would not be providing financial backing in the wake of their attack because THEY HAD NOT AUTHORIZED THE ATTACK.
Who did?
PUTIN. This is a PROXY WAR aimed to entangle the US in retaliation for supporting Ukraine.
Furthermore, the RNC’s paid, dirty tricksters (Roger Stone, Paul Manafort, Rick Gates, Ron Lauder, etc) have a very long history of supporting dictators in Hungary and Ukraine. . . With collaboration by Putin.
The bottom line: This is a proxy war. No emotional protesting in this country will determine the outcome--and how arrogant, naive and stupid for US voters to “demand” that Biden “call a cease fire.”
Netanyahu has to go.
Recognize that Settlers in contested areas and Palestinians acting as “human shields” are serving as pawns for martydom.
Move the damned embassy out of Jerusalem,
And give Ukraine the arms required to maintain their independence.
Questions: what is/was Bibi's plan(s) for previously "propping up Hamas" and who benefits from having a hot war of occupation, particularly at this moment? To name a couple: Bibi appeared to be on his way out (corruption) prior to all this, Putin would seem to benefit from the distractions away from Ukraine, etc.
And knowing the lack of empathy for life by RW entities, it causes one to speculate on hurting US/Biden and "wag the dog" (Bibi) scenarios. In the name of "security" of course. And for those who have read "Proof of Conspiracy" there is already an understanding of all the underlying threads. So, the death toll manipulations are an "indicator" of other agendas it seems. To quote a well worn phrase, this is a damned "hot mess" with a pile of ancillary "noise" and the potential for long range and continuing issues.
There was a threat of further civil unrest within the Israeli populace against Bibi's far right regime. The 3rd Temple fanaticism or ultranationalism - a foreboding of civil war.
I really appreciate your thoroughness and showing your work in reaching conclusions and explaining inferences, along with many explicit confirmations that Hamas's actions mustn't be excused, adds-up to an exhaustive but exhausting - to create and to read - article. I wouldn't presume to dictate how, but a lot more people would avail themselves of this very important information if it was available in a bite-sized form that would not do justice to the subject but the subject receives no justice if it doesn't reach broad awareness. You are, of course, cognizant of the conflicting exigencies - thoroughness and easy digestibility. Thanks so much for your very thoughtful labors.
Thank you, Seth. A remarkable article and I really appreciate your insight.
I totally agree with the comments already made by Robert Hull and Jane. I read every word and I'm relieved to hear what I've been feeling. All of this makes me so angry and upset. Too many small-minded men still wanting to be dictators in the world. When will we grow up as a species?
Hi Joanne, if you have read much of my work you know that I was raised in rural Massachusetts in the 1980s as a Jewish boy who was told by both friends and acquaintances that he should not consider himself white because Jewishness is a racial category. So when I call any Jew “white” I do so knowing how charged that is for not just Jews but those gentiles who either know nothing about Judaism or are antisemitic.
Because I understand that Judaism is a religion and not a race, I do consider myself white even though I also consider myself part of a religious minority. I recognize that Americans see Israelis as white and that this matters because they with equal predictability see Palestinians as nonwhite.
Racial prejudice is the original sin of America. It plagues us still. It would be naive and I think dishonorable for us to pretend that Americans do not watch what is happening in the Middle East and see a tilt between whites and non-whites, between those who have a sort of kinship with Christians (as the earliest Christians were by heritage Jews) and those who have less of a kinship (acknowledging here that all three of these religions are Abrahamic).
So I do not mention that Netanyahu is seen as white because I believe that in any way informs his actions, but because it does inform how Americans receive those actions. And yes, I believe everything about how most Americans have reacted to what is happening in Israel is inflected by that racial proxying—however inapt and unhelpful it may be.
I hope you will consider reading the entire report and seeing how this comes together.
"Semite" is a term that is appropriate for both ethnic Jews and Arabs. Interestingly, many European Jews are the descendants of converts and are in fact Caucasians. Most Israeli Jews are in fact European Jews who emigrated there after WW2.
I think it is disengenous to claim that European Jews are caucasians - wholly antisemitic. By the way, for many decades people have understood antisemitism to be anti-Jew. Hitler conferred upon his people the title of master race based on not only Jewish religion but a clear demarcation of culture and race.
Half of the Jews are ethnic Ashkenazi. But carry on denying 2000 years of religious and racial persecution to suit your belief that Jews got a free pass as white Europeans. Jews are not classified by religion in the minds of far left and far right radicals, but by both ethnicity/race and religion/culture (and in many cases by appearance) in this sad world. By the way, there are newer studies to the one you cite. I very much doubt that being "European" automatically qualifies you as being white. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jewish_ethnic_divisions
I have never had to ban even a single user in real-time; here, I had to do so twice. I want to say that I did so because two users were (a) making up statements by me (as well as wildly and deliberately mischaracterizing statements by me) to accuse me of being an antisemite—though I am Jewish—and (b) spreading war disinformation, which I do not allow either on my social media feeds or here. Had these actions only occurred once I would merely have stepped in and issued a warning, but they happened over and over and that simply cannot be tolerated here. Disagreeing with things I write is not only okay but encouraged; accusing me of bigotry, lies, and rampant unprofessionalism while spreading dangerous disinformation is not.
Joanne didn’t read the piece (she stated she stopped early on and has not indicated she reconsidered that choice so she is literally ignorant; meanwhile Ravdbc seems not too bright because even though Seth explained what journalists do, and why and how these nuances matter...you just disagree but don’t actually refute Seth’s points, you just misunderstand what is being said and why. Bibi, Trump, and their ilk COUNT ON YOUR IGNORANCE.
I believe Israel is bombing Gaza with complete disregard for any hostages. And given Israel’s complete disregard for Palestinian lives, Hamas should daily announce the number of hostages killed by Israeli bombs. That would ratchet up world pressure for an immediate ceasefire.
Thank you, Seth. That was fascinating. I suspected Netanyahu inflated the numbers. I would go further than that with my suspicions but as I don't have strong evidence right now, I will refrain.
Btw, The Young Turks played a snippet of a recording of Trump talking about Netanyahu after he left office. Even he is appalled him. He said in the recording it was quite clear to him that Netanyahu didn't want peace between Palestine and Israel...ever.
He mentioned he was very fond of the Palestinian leader. Is it Abbas? Can't remember the name. Claimed that he did so much for Netanyahu, including moving the embassy to Jerusalem and "he got nothing in return."
So, they were friends but friendship with Trump has a best before date. Just a fwiw.
So now Trump is good because he dissed Netanyahu and said positive things about Abbas who has not relinquished power in 16 years? Come on, it’s irrelevant to the article.
One of the next reports coming to Proof is about Trump and Netanyahu and their joint involvement in causing this war, which is why I mentioned Trump in this article. This report is part of a series of reports on the 2023 Gaza War, so presaging where the series is going is important to me as an author.
Who said Trump is good? And it has some relevance to the article as Seth mentioned they're friends. Maybe I should have said, "Netanyahu could make a maggot puke, as Trump being appalled by him, suggests." How's that? Better?
Seth I appreciate you dedication to unearthing truth and sharing your insights no matter who it may reflects on poorly.
This is type of reporting is missed and needed in American MSM, if Americans are to truly understand what is happening here and around the world!
Could Hamass’ main goal been to stop the Israel-Saudi peace agreement? If all the Arab states come to peace agreements it could render the Palestinian cause moot.
BLUF (bottom line up front): Rescuing the hostages is - and always was - the operational priority, and is the reason for the brutal attack on Gaza. Israel can't responsibly or effectively rescue the hostages, which requires operating in the tunnel network, without first clearing the surface structures above. Hamas could end the siege instantly by releasing all hostages, thereby eliminating Netanyahu's rationale for the current character, pace, and intensity of operations.
The fact that Netanyahu is PM figured both in Hamas's predicate for their attack and for the because-Netanyahu-is-PM predictable Israeli response (similar to ObL's calculus pre-9/11). The corrupt PM was caught with his pants down and had to move precipitously for his own political survival, not operational necessity. A different PM might have been able to take time to establish contexts, open up lines of communications for hostage negotiation, seek multinational cooperation, etc.
I might've missed it but failed to observe in Mr. Abramson's account the hostage rescue mission. That's the one that matters urgently, and justifies Israel's actions in Gaza right now, not "elimination of Hamas," as Netanyahu says, because that's virtually impossible.
EDIT: I take to be the main thrust of this installment of Mr. Abramson's Gaza reporting to be about implications associated with reporting accuracy, and politicians' role in inaccurate reporting. I don't dispute that it happens, I don't fault the journalist for concerning one's self with it. It doesn't strike one as particularly urgent to note in this moment, considering that 1) once bullets start flying (this in regard to Hamas's intent versus actual execution), all operational plans go out the window and 2) the fog of war isn't conducive to accurate reporting for many reasons.
Thanks again Seth for your always detailed reporting. Your early analysis of Trump's Jan 6th 2021 operation to disrupt the POTUS succession was later verified by reality - Congressional and judicial.
To mention an obvious political angle: There is absolutely no reason why Netanyahu would want to conduct himself so as to not hand the White House over to the GOP, with or without Trump. That besides keeping the war hysteria going so as to keep him in office.
It will be interesting to see where all these “casualty” figures end up. It is true that the Israelis have lost the PR war as international opinion is decidedly against them.
Great work as always. Can you explain a little more how the revised numbers affect proportionality? My understanding is that in the legal sense, the proportionality of an attack is basically “was the target of high enough importance for the civilian casualties the attack caused,” and is assessed per action, and not as a whole/not in the sense of “they killed X amount, so you get to kill Y amount.”
Absolutely correct. But the significance of the target militarily is partly determined by the threat posed by the target. And Netanyahu has dramatically overstated the threat posed by this particular target at this particular time, given the evidence that this particular target at this particular time sought to kidnap civilians to generate geopolitical leverage to stop the peace negotiations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, whereas Netanyahu has falsely stated that the goal of Hamas on October 7 was simply to kill as many Israelis as possible.
Just so, in any war crimes prosecution there would be an analysis of whether the defendant or defendants used misinformation or disinformation to enable or encourage or secure the necessary military resources to take out a target. Essentially, Netanyahu had to frame the military value of every Hamas target as being related to the continued existence of Israel when the data he had before him did not show that Hamas posed an existential threat either on the timeline or at the scale he claimed.
Hamas is a terrorist organization that must be destroyed. That said, it amended its charter to change its geopolitical goals, and not many people know that. While it still seeks the end of the Israeli state, the question is whether it seeks to do so through genocide or ethnic cleansing or crimes against humanity or war crimes or mass murder *or* whether it seeks to do so through hostage-taking and geopolitical negotiation. Both ambitions would be terrorism, to be very clear, but the ICC probably would not let you kill 100,000 innocent civilians (which is the direction Netanyahu is heading in now) to stop the latter.
I might also add that if the testimony of survivors of October 7 that appears to be censored by the government of Israel right now ultimately comes to light en masse and reveals that the IDF in fact did kill Israeli civilians indiscriminately on October 7 and Netanyahu subsequently covered that up and in fact went further and attributed the deaths to Hamas, that too would become part of the calculation of whether war crimes had been committed and whether the proportionality doctrine had been honored.
So it wouldn't necessarily be used to determine the proportionality of a specific attack (thinking of al-Shifa at the moment), but would go more to overall motive. That makes sense. Thanks!
It’s key that this remarkable and impressive piece of journalism touches upon the taking of land and removal of Palestinians from the Gaza as the motive for IDF actions.
The present echoes the past but with the information field now much less manageable than before perhaps outcomes will differ.
So why did it take this so-called war to raise questions about how many casualties are fact and how many are fiction (and that these numbers are a propaganda weapon for Israel)? What about those "wars" in Gaza every 2 years or so where Israel would bomb Gaza's schools, hospitals, mosques and apartment buildings, kill between 1,000 and 3,000 Palestinians each time, and the western media didn't give a shit except to infer that they deserved it? Really, when Hamas would fire their homemade "rockets" and no Israelis got killed, the serial torment of those "wars" on Gaza were quickly forgotten.
Racism? Yes, partially, but also Christian brainwashing that has taught generations of westerners that Israel's claims are indisputable and that it has an absolute right to slaughter the people whose land they occupy. For us atheists, it stinks more of America's similarly-based "manifest destiny" that fueled the genocide of its indigenous peoples. To this day, Israelis live in homes of Palestinians who were, and are, forced to vacate them. Others are torn down and the land given to Israelis. It is a violation of the Geneva Conventions to destroy buildings under occupation.
When an occupied people are driven into an enclave the size of Philadelphia, are cut off from food, water and medical care, are bombed, shot and starved, and they have already been living that way for decades, just what kind of idiots fail to understand that this is how terrorism begins?
Excellent report Seth. Thank you for your truthful investigating.
I read every word, Seth. Great work! I know this is a stupid response, but all I can think to say is WOW.
I feel personally relieved to hear the same thing I've been feeling, written by a Jewish person. No one can tell me that it's racist to criticize a country or a policy. Israel is clearly committing war crimes, will it ever stop?
Netanyahu is a corrupt POS who has squandered the goodwill for Israel in the US. As a gesture toward tRump, and Netanyahu’s family friends, the Kushners, he was pivotal in PROVOKING this attack when the US Embassy was moved to Jerusalem. He capped it off by having Israeli soldiers open fire on unarmed Palestinian protestors. It was no coincidence that PUTIN personally drove in the convoy that invaded Crimea that same day. Netanyahu, like tRump, thought he had a pal in Putin. This performative gesture went against decades of foreign policy, and IT WAS PROVOCATIVE. Yet, in his arrogance, he blew off intelligence reports of a Hamas attack--his pal, Putin, wouldn’t give the okay for such a thing, right?
Recently, ACCORDING TO REUTERS, Iran informed Hamas that they would not be providing financial backing in the wake of their attack because THEY HAD NOT AUTHORIZED THE ATTACK.
Who did?
PUTIN. This is a PROXY WAR aimed to entangle the US in retaliation for supporting Ukraine.
Furthermore, the RNC’s paid, dirty tricksters (Roger Stone, Paul Manafort, Rick Gates, Ron Lauder, etc) have a very long history of supporting dictators in Hungary and Ukraine. . . With collaboration by Putin.
The bottom line: This is a proxy war. No emotional protesting in this country will determine the outcome--and how arrogant, naive and stupid for US voters to “demand” that Biden “call a cease fire.”
Netanyahu has to go.
Recognize that Settlers in contested areas and Palestinians acting as “human shields” are serving as pawns for martydom.
Move the damned embassy out of Jerusalem,
And give Ukraine the arms required to maintain their independence.
Questions: what is/was Bibi's plan(s) for previously "propping up Hamas" and who benefits from having a hot war of occupation, particularly at this moment? To name a couple: Bibi appeared to be on his way out (corruption) prior to all this, Putin would seem to benefit from the distractions away from Ukraine, etc.
And knowing the lack of empathy for life by RW entities, it causes one to speculate on hurting US/Biden and "wag the dog" (Bibi) scenarios. In the name of "security" of course. And for those who have read "Proof of Conspiracy" there is already an understanding of all the underlying threads. So, the death toll manipulations are an "indicator" of other agendas it seems. To quote a well worn phrase, this is a damned "hot mess" with a pile of ancillary "noise" and the potential for long range and continuing issues.
There was a threat of further civil unrest within the Israeli populace against Bibi's far right regime. The 3rd Temple fanaticism or ultranationalism - a foreboding of civil war.
I really appreciate your thoroughness and showing your work in reaching conclusions and explaining inferences, along with many explicit confirmations that Hamas's actions mustn't be excused, adds-up to an exhaustive but exhausting - to create and to read - article. I wouldn't presume to dictate how, but a lot more people would avail themselves of this very important information if it was available in a bite-sized form that would not do justice to the subject but the subject receives no justice if it doesn't reach broad awareness. You are, of course, cognizant of the conflicting exigencies - thoroughness and easy digestibility. Thanks so much for your very thoughtful labors.
Thank you, Seth. A remarkable article and I really appreciate your insight.
I totally agree with the comments already made by Robert Hull and Jane. I read every word and I'm relieved to hear what I've been feeling. All of this makes me so angry and upset. Too many small-minded men still wanting to be dictators in the world. When will we grow up as a species?
As soon as you described Netanyahu as white I stopped reading. What ever was the point of that observation in relation to your article Seth?
Hi Joanne, if you have read much of my work you know that I was raised in rural Massachusetts in the 1980s as a Jewish boy who was told by both friends and acquaintances that he should not consider himself white because Jewishness is a racial category. So when I call any Jew “white” I do so knowing how charged that is for not just Jews but those gentiles who either know nothing about Judaism or are antisemitic.
Because I understand that Judaism is a religion and not a race, I do consider myself white even though I also consider myself part of a religious minority. I recognize that Americans see Israelis as white and that this matters because they with equal predictability see Palestinians as nonwhite.
Racial prejudice is the original sin of America. It plagues us still. It would be naive and I think dishonorable for us to pretend that Americans do not watch what is happening in the Middle East and see a tilt between whites and non-whites, between those who have a sort of kinship with Christians (as the earliest Christians were by heritage Jews) and those who have less of a kinship (acknowledging here that all three of these religions are Abrahamic).
So I do not mention that Netanyahu is seen as white because I believe that in any way informs his actions, but because it does inform how Americans receive those actions. And yes, I believe everything about how most Americans have reacted to what is happening in Israel is inflected by that racial proxying—however inapt and unhelpful it may be.
I hope you will consider reading the entire report and seeing how this comes together.
It’s interesting that most Jews in Israel are not white. My husband is Yemenite, and my two best friends are Syrian Jews.
"Semite" is a term that is appropriate for both ethnic Jews and Arabs. Interestingly, many European Jews are the descendants of converts and are in fact Caucasians. Most Israeli Jews are in fact European Jews who emigrated there after WW2.
I think it is disengenous to claim that European Jews are caucasians - wholly antisemitic. By the way, for many decades people have understood antisemitism to be anti-Jew. Hitler conferred upon his people the title of master race based on not only Jewish religion but a clear demarcation of culture and race.
It's antisemitic to note that many European Jews are white? That's a new one. Everything we say about Jews isn't antisemitic. Smh
https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2021/05/11/race-ethnicity-heritage-and-immigration-among-u-s-jews/
https://www.nbcnews.com/sciencemain/most-ashkenazi-jews-are-genetically-europeans-surprising-study-finds-8c11358210
Half of the Jews are ethnic Ashkenazi. But carry on denying 2000 years of religious and racial persecution to suit your belief that Jews got a free pass as white Europeans. Jews are not classified by religion in the minds of far left and far right radicals, but by both ethnicity/race and religion/culture (and in many cases by appearance) in this sad world. By the way, there are newer studies to the one you cite. I very much doubt that being "European" automatically qualifies you as being white. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jewish_ethnic_divisions
If you read it you may find out.
I have never had to ban even a single user in real-time; here, I had to do so twice. I want to say that I did so because two users were (a) making up statements by me (as well as wildly and deliberately mischaracterizing statements by me) to accuse me of being an antisemite—though I am Jewish—and (b) spreading war disinformation, which I do not allow either on my social media feeds or here. Had these actions only occurred once I would merely have stepped in and issued a warning, but they happened over and over and that simply cannot be tolerated here. Disagreeing with things I write is not only okay but encouraged; accusing me of bigotry, lies, and rampant unprofessionalism while spreading dangerous disinformation is not.
Joanne didn’t read the piece (she stated she stopped early on and has not indicated she reconsidered that choice so she is literally ignorant; meanwhile Ravdbc seems not too bright because even though Seth explained what journalists do, and why and how these nuances matter...you just disagree but don’t actually refute Seth’s points, you just misunderstand what is being said and why. Bibi, Trump, and their ilk COUNT ON YOUR IGNORANCE.
:(
I believe Israel is bombing Gaza with complete disregard for any hostages. And given Israel’s complete disregard for Palestinian lives, Hamas should daily announce the number of hostages killed by Israeli bombs. That would ratchet up world pressure for an immediate ceasefire.
Thank you, Seth. That was fascinating. I suspected Netanyahu inflated the numbers. I would go further than that with my suspicions but as I don't have strong evidence right now, I will refrain.
Btw, The Young Turks played a snippet of a recording of Trump talking about Netanyahu after he left office. Even he is appalled him. He said in the recording it was quite clear to him that Netanyahu didn't want peace between Palestine and Israel...ever.
He mentioned he was very fond of the Palestinian leader. Is it Abbas? Can't remember the name. Claimed that he did so much for Netanyahu, including moving the embassy to Jerusalem and "he got nothing in return."
So, they were friends but friendship with Trump has a best before date. Just a fwiw.
So now Trump is good because he dissed Netanyahu and said positive things about Abbas who has not relinquished power in 16 years? Come on, it’s irrelevant to the article.
One of the next reports coming to Proof is about Trump and Netanyahu and their joint involvement in causing this war, which is why I mentioned Trump in this article. This report is part of a series of reports on the 2023 Gaza War, so presaging where the series is going is important to me as an author.
Can’t wait to read more from you especially about what I imagine will include the Abraham Accords.
Who said Trump is good? And it has some relevance to the article as Seth mentioned they're friends. Maybe I should have said, "Netanyahu could make a maggot puke, as Trump being appalled by him, suggests." How's that? Better?
Seth I appreciate you dedication to unearthing truth and sharing your insights no matter who it may reflects on poorly.
This is type of reporting is missed and needed in American MSM, if Americans are to truly understand what is happening here and around the world!
Could Hamass’ main goal been to stop the Israel-Saudi peace agreement? If all the Arab states come to peace agreements it could render the Palestinian cause moot.
I look forward to your next article.
BLUF (bottom line up front): Rescuing the hostages is - and always was - the operational priority, and is the reason for the brutal attack on Gaza. Israel can't responsibly or effectively rescue the hostages, which requires operating in the tunnel network, without first clearing the surface structures above. Hamas could end the siege instantly by releasing all hostages, thereby eliminating Netanyahu's rationale for the current character, pace, and intensity of operations.
The fact that Netanyahu is PM figured both in Hamas's predicate for their attack and for the because-Netanyahu-is-PM predictable Israeli response (similar to ObL's calculus pre-9/11). The corrupt PM was caught with his pants down and had to move precipitously for his own political survival, not operational necessity. A different PM might have been able to take time to establish contexts, open up lines of communications for hostage negotiation, seek multinational cooperation, etc.
I might've missed it but failed to observe in Mr. Abramson's account the hostage rescue mission. That's the one that matters urgently, and justifies Israel's actions in Gaza right now, not "elimination of Hamas," as Netanyahu says, because that's virtually impossible.
EDIT: I take to be the main thrust of this installment of Mr. Abramson's Gaza reporting to be about implications associated with reporting accuracy, and politicians' role in inaccurate reporting. I don't dispute that it happens, I don't fault the journalist for concerning one's self with it. It doesn't strike one as particularly urgent to note in this moment, considering that 1) once bullets start flying (this in regard to Hamas's intent versus actual execution), all operational plans go out the window and 2) the fog of war isn't conducive to accurate reporting for many reasons.
Nothing justifies the mass murder of the civilians in Gaza. Did you actually read the entire piece?
Clearly not.
I respect your stance.
In answer to your query: Yes, I read it all.
Thanks again Seth for your always detailed reporting. Your early analysis of Trump's Jan 6th 2021 operation to disrupt the POTUS succession was later verified by reality - Congressional and judicial.
To mention an obvious political angle: There is absolutely no reason why Netanyahu would want to conduct himself so as to not hand the White House over to the GOP, with or without Trump. That besides keeping the war hysteria going so as to keep him in office.
The question is, can the Israeli state afford the economic and financial costs of a longer war? JP Morgan forecasts "Israel's Economy Set to Shrink 11% as Hamas War Escalates" - just in one quarter! https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-29/jpmorgan-says-israel-s-economy-may-shrink-11-this-quarter?embedded-checkout=true
Did you see the report from Haaretz that said that IDF attack helicopters hit civilians at the music festival, too?
It will be interesting to see where all these “casualty” figures end up. It is true that the Israelis have lost the PR war as international opinion is decidedly against them.
Great work as always. Can you explain a little more how the revised numbers affect proportionality? My understanding is that in the legal sense, the proportionality of an attack is basically “was the target of high enough importance for the civilian casualties the attack caused,” and is assessed per action, and not as a whole/not in the sense of “they killed X amount, so you get to kill Y amount.”
Absolutely correct. But the significance of the target militarily is partly determined by the threat posed by the target. And Netanyahu has dramatically overstated the threat posed by this particular target at this particular time, given the evidence that this particular target at this particular time sought to kidnap civilians to generate geopolitical leverage to stop the peace negotiations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, whereas Netanyahu has falsely stated that the goal of Hamas on October 7 was simply to kill as many Israelis as possible.
Just so, in any war crimes prosecution there would be an analysis of whether the defendant or defendants used misinformation or disinformation to enable or encourage or secure the necessary military resources to take out a target. Essentially, Netanyahu had to frame the military value of every Hamas target as being related to the continued existence of Israel when the data he had before him did not show that Hamas posed an existential threat either on the timeline or at the scale he claimed.
Hamas is a terrorist organization that must be destroyed. That said, it amended its charter to change its geopolitical goals, and not many people know that. While it still seeks the end of the Israeli state, the question is whether it seeks to do so through genocide or ethnic cleansing or crimes against humanity or war crimes or mass murder *or* whether it seeks to do so through hostage-taking and geopolitical negotiation. Both ambitions would be terrorism, to be very clear, but the ICC probably would not let you kill 100,000 innocent civilians (which is the direction Netanyahu is heading in now) to stop the latter.
I might also add that if the testimony of survivors of October 7 that appears to be censored by the government of Israel right now ultimately comes to light en masse and reveals that the IDF in fact did kill Israeli civilians indiscriminately on October 7 and Netanyahu subsequently covered that up and in fact went further and attributed the deaths to Hamas, that too would become part of the calculation of whether war crimes had been committed and whether the proportionality doctrine had been honored.
So it wouldn't necessarily be used to determine the proportionality of a specific attack (thinking of al-Shifa at the moment), but would go more to overall motive. That makes sense. Thanks!
It’s key that this remarkable and impressive piece of journalism touches upon the taking of land and removal of Palestinians from the Gaza as the motive for IDF actions.
The present echoes the past but with the information field now much less manageable than before perhaps outcomes will differ.