Jared Kushner seemed central and omnipresent and now I hear little mention of him. Any info on what he’s up to and how he fits into Trump et al’s future?
One interesting thing about Kushner is that he has always been reported as having "cooperated" with investigators to at least some degree on every investigation where they've sought to work with him. I can't help but wonder whether he's such a valuable source of intel for the USIC and evidence for DOJ that he is going to escape prosecution. So much of what he got up to was emoluments-like stuff—basic graft—that it seems DOJ has decided to ignore, and the rest were major national security issues that have criminal components but that USIC seems happy to deal with as merely counterintelligence data. I don't know—it's all very frustrating.
Love the Proof substack -- thank you! About a year ago I went to hear Ira Glass do his live show for This American Life. During the Q&A he mentioned that in his opinion mainstream media still has not figured out how to deal with constant, ongoing, bad-faith misinformation and disinformation. In Ira's view, the propagandists see it as a "war" and proceed accordingly, whereas mainstream media is still stuck in a 2010s mode and simply not equipped to handle the toxic spew. Given Brandolini's Law, the nihilism of the "flood the zone" strategy, the false equivalence of "both sides-ism," etc. have you found any GOOD examples of media (or individuals) responding effectively to bad-faith disinformation? Is there any way for folks to dismiss statements out of hand as decoys or traps (or just tripe) and refuse to engage? So often it feels like merely responding to the lies and misinformation is a mistake, along the lines of the classic "So have you stopped beating your wife yet?" Is there a metamodern response to disinformation as a mainline political strategy?
A proper response to a coordinated disinformation campaign would have to be itself coordinated, and the corporate media won't cooperate in this way because they all have their own brands and bottom lines to protect. That's why Trumpists are winning the disinformation war—they're united in favor of their psy-op, while their victims are scattered, all looking after their own interests. There won't be a sufficient pushback until you have some real metamodern collaboration and juxtaposition and co-option happen between responsible media outlets. I don't see that happening anytime soon.
Thank you for your reply - much appreciated! PS I wish there was some way to accelerate this needed metamodern collaboration instead of just waiting for it to happen of its own accord.
Under what circumstances are you open to getting tips from readers/subscribers about the things you're writing about? Specifically, do you want only major-media reporting, or are you interested in "dots" to connect that haven't yet been fully sourced or vetted in such major-media articles? Where would one send such tips, info, etc.? How can we help you do the amazing things you do in ways that work *with* your grain rather than being a nuisance? Many thanks!
You're not a nuisance! I am simply tardy and overwhelmed on so many things. I would say this: major-media stories are my bread-and-butter, so those are invaluable. But if people have screenshots that can be confirmed from verified social media accounts, or easily verified videos of events, I can use those too. The only thing I really can't work with is speculation. Hope that makes sense. I will say that there are a number of people who regularly send me news articles and that sort of collaboration is hugely helpful. I post them if/when they are relevant and in some cases even bookmark them for later use in a metajournalistic book.
Seth, I have followed you for 4 years and have read your books. Like you, I am also proudly a UW-Madison graduate. Thank you for being the only person I know who looks holistically at the reporting about 45 and bringing the truth to light. When, and how, specifically, do you think he will be held accountable? Will he ever be held accountable?
I do not believe there will be a civil war. And candidly, experts on civil war do not believe there will be a civil war. And even if there were some large-scale domestic conflict, it would *not* look like civil wars in other countries. There would be pockets of resistance to the government (e.g., think northern Idaho) and standoffs with the feds punctuated by acts of terrorism against federal targets. We should not be imagining a Second Civil War in any traditional sense—that's naive and any historian, intel person, or solider would say so.
I wish I had an answer. Two days ago, "Anonymous" (the hacker group) seemed to declare they'd determined his location, but we don't know if the FBI has it. It *will* happen eventually—the man is no criminal mastermind.
If somehow Schumer can use his majority to get a rule change and a secret ballot, which I think he should try to do even if it's never been tried before, yes, I think the vote to convict would go up slightly. Most senators would be afraid of getting caught out, though, and I still don't know if you'd get to 67 votes to convict.
Dude, he's got 936.3K followers and has appeared on both CNN and the BBC. He's not a random Leftie keyboard warrior down to talk shit and ideological nonsense.
With your curation of coordination of all of the events through numerous sources, are you working with anyone to pull together a video chronology of the events leading up to and including 1/6?
Obviously the Crime Family administration is a bit of an anomaly but I'm wondering if there is Any Possible Way to Go After ALL of the $$$ that's been Grifted away??
If there are charges against the Trump Organization, Trump presidential transition (2016-7), or any Trump PAC (e.g., Save America PAC), as there may well be now that Trump is out of office, certain funds can be seized, certain funds can be frozen, and certain funds can be taken post-trial via massive fines. So yes, a *little* of what was stolen could be retrieved eventually. It will take years of litigation, though.
Given that the Senate is not technically a court, is there a chance that the arguments you've laid out to Trump's response to the Article of Impeachment will have any impact? Or will Trump's lawyers be able to bafflegab their way past the evidence presented?
I think Trump believes his lawyers could sing and dance—literally—for three days and he would be acquitted. He's probably right. No one should mistake an impeachment trial for a real trial. It isn't, though to their credit the House managers will *try their best* to make it like one, or close enough.
20 is conservative. Look at the average age of the main incitement characters - I'd say at least before 2028, depending on how the Biden administration deals with the NRA - gun licensing and gun regulation.
So do I, even in the conservative guesstimate. I love my country (as I'm sure do you), and I have children and want grandkids. The prospect of civil war and balkanization here horrifies me. I'm a 1st generation American.
I do not believe the Kremlin has any active assets in Congress, now that Rohrabacher is gone. I think there are a few useful idiots who have been seduced by the Russians into taking a pro-Russia foreign policy stance for various reasons, perhaps in some instances because they see some future business or lobbying benefit. Ron Johnson comes to mind. But getting an active asset over whom the Kremlin has actual *command and control* is difficult beyond belief and really almost impossible to do quietly. Everyone knew what Rohrabacher was.
Jared Kushner seemed central and omnipresent and now I hear little mention of him. Any info on what he’s up to and how he fits into Trump et al’s future?
One interesting thing about Kushner is that he has always been reported as having "cooperated" with investigators to at least some degree on every investigation where they've sought to work with him. I can't help but wonder whether he's such a valuable source of intel for the USIC and evidence for DOJ that he is going to escape prosecution. So much of what he got up to was emoluments-like stuff—basic graft—that it seems DOJ has decided to ignore, and the rest were major national security issues that have criminal components but that USIC seems happy to deal with as merely counterintelligence data. I don't know—it's all very frustrating.
Thank you for your thoughts. His influence seems prodigious, murky and discomfiting.
Love the Proof substack -- thank you! About a year ago I went to hear Ira Glass do his live show for This American Life. During the Q&A he mentioned that in his opinion mainstream media still has not figured out how to deal with constant, ongoing, bad-faith misinformation and disinformation. In Ira's view, the propagandists see it as a "war" and proceed accordingly, whereas mainstream media is still stuck in a 2010s mode and simply not equipped to handle the toxic spew. Given Brandolini's Law, the nihilism of the "flood the zone" strategy, the false equivalence of "both sides-ism," etc. have you found any GOOD examples of media (or individuals) responding effectively to bad-faith disinformation? Is there any way for folks to dismiss statements out of hand as decoys or traps (or just tripe) and refuse to engage? So often it feels like merely responding to the lies and misinformation is a mistake, along the lines of the classic "So have you stopped beating your wife yet?" Is there a metamodern response to disinformation as a mainline political strategy?
A proper response to a coordinated disinformation campaign would have to be itself coordinated, and the corporate media won't cooperate in this way because they all have their own brands and bottom lines to protect. That's why Trumpists are winning the disinformation war—they're united in favor of their psy-op, while their victims are scattered, all looking after their own interests. There won't be a sufficient pushback until you have some real metamodern collaboration and juxtaposition and co-option happen between responsible media outlets. I don't see that happening anytime soon.
Thank you for your reply - much appreciated! PS I wish there was some way to accelerate this needed metamodern collaboration instead of just waiting for it to happen of its own accord.
Under what circumstances are you open to getting tips from readers/subscribers about the things you're writing about? Specifically, do you want only major-media reporting, or are you interested in "dots" to connect that haven't yet been fully sourced or vetted in such major-media articles? Where would one send such tips, info, etc.? How can we help you do the amazing things you do in ways that work *with* your grain rather than being a nuisance? Many thanks!
You're not a nuisance! I am simply tardy and overwhelmed on so many things. I would say this: major-media stories are my bread-and-butter, so those are invaluable. But if people have screenshots that can be confirmed from verified social media accounts, or easily verified videos of events, I can use those too. The only thing I really can't work with is speculation. Hope that makes sense. I will say that there are a number of people who regularly send me news articles and that sort of collaboration is hugely helpful. I post them if/when they are relevant and in some cases even bookmark them for later use in a metajournalistic book.
Seth, I have followed you for 4 years and have read your books. Like you, I am also proudly a UW-Madison graduate. Thank you for being the only person I know who looks holistically at the reporting about 45 and bringing the truth to light. When, and how, specifically, do you think he will be held accountable? Will he ever be held accountable?
The best we can hope for is that he will be shot and killed during the Civil War.
I do not believe there will be a civil war. And candidly, experts on civil war do not believe there will be a civil war. And even if there were some large-scale domestic conflict, it would *not* look like civil wars in other countries. There would be pockets of resistance to the government (e.g., think northern Idaho) and standoffs with the feds punctuated by acts of terrorism against federal targets. We should not be imagining a Second Civil War in any traditional sense—that's naive and any historian, intel person, or solider would say so.
Please comment on how, specifically, you think 45 will ultimately be held accountable in a meaningful way. Thank you, Seth.
How in the Hell have the not caught Ali Alexander yet?
I wish I had an answer. Two days ago, "Anonymous" (the hacker group) seemed to declare they'd determined his location, but we don't know if the FBI has it. It *will* happen eventually—the man is no criminal mastermind.
Who's hiding this guy? and what can he really reveal?
He is hiding in Robert Stacy McCain's acid vat
Prolly a lynchpin connecting Proud Boys, Roger Stone, and the family tRUmp
There are tons of Trump properties. FBI can't storm every single one. The 0.1% disguise each other.
I spoke to his value as a witness and what evidence he may produce
If a secret ballot is cast, do you think more Republicans will vote to strip Trump of power in the Senate trial?
If somehow Schumer can use his majority to get a rule change and a secret ballot, which I think he should try to do even if it's never been tried before, yes, I think the vote to convict would go up slightly. Most senators would be afraid of getting caught out, though, and I still don't know if you'd get to 67 votes to convict.
How to get your excellent analysis to the Impeachment Managers?
My Twitter feed is followed by most of the Managers, including Raskin and Lieu and Swalwell. I believe they have seen what's here on PROOF.
Lets hope
Dude, he's got 936.3K followers and has appeared on both CNN and the BBC. He's not a random Leftie keyboard warrior down to talk shit and ideological nonsense.
let's get 1 Million! 🔥🥰
Hah! That was my question as well. Thanks for asking it.
On days you feel down (either because of personal or public issues), do you prefer songs that reflect your current mood or songs that go against it?
Go against it, usually. Great question.
With your curation of coordination of all of the events through numerous sources, are you working with anyone to pull together a video chronology of the events leading up to and including 1/6?
Not at this time. Right now I'm just gathering hundreds and hundreds (actually well over 1,000, now) articles on the subject.
Obviously the Crime Family administration is a bit of an anomaly but I'm wondering if there is Any Possible Way to Go After ALL of the $$$ that's been Grifted away??
If there are charges against the Trump Organization, Trump presidential transition (2016-7), or any Trump PAC (e.g., Save America PAC), as there may well be now that Trump is out of office, certain funds can be seized, certain funds can be frozen, and certain funds can be taken post-trial via massive fines. So yes, a *little* of what was stolen could be retrieved eventually. It will take years of litigation, though.
Not worth it. Wait for Robinhoods to fuck the economy and burst their offshore account bubbles. We'll not litigate ourselves to early graves.
So much of your reporting is chilling. How do you decompress?
Music, dogs, video games, fantasy books, walks, movies. That's when I decompress—too often I don't.
Thanks a million for your hard work. It means a great deal to so many of us.
Given that the Senate is not technically a court, is there a chance that the arguments you've laid out to Trump's response to the Article of Impeachment will have any impact? Or will Trump's lawyers be able to bafflegab their way past the evidence presented?
I think Trump believes his lawyers could sing and dance—literally—for three days and he would be acquitted. He's probably right. No one should mistake an impeachment trial for a real trial. It isn't, though to their credit the House managers will *try their best* to make it like one, or close enough.
Thank you, Seth. So appreciate your work!
Estimate with an intuitive percentage of civil war breaking out before 2024. I give it 70%.
5%.
Great question... What do you think likelihood is in next 20 years? I think that's where you get 70 to 75%.
20 is conservative. Look at the average age of the main incitement characters - I'd say at least before 2028, depending on how the Biden administration deals with the NRA - gun licensing and gun regulation.
I was being conservative. But I fear you are correct in your best guesstimate and reason for giving it.
I want to be wrong.
So do I, even in the conservative guesstimate. I love my country (as I'm sure do you), and I have children and want grandkids. The prospect of civil war and balkanization here horrifies me. I'm a 1st generation American.
What is your favorite song by The Cure?
"Close to Me" like most folks who like the Cure but are not completists
:)
Seth, "I will always love you."
How many members of Congress are assets managed by Russian intelligence—take your best guess?
I do not believe the Kremlin has any active assets in Congress, now that Rohrabacher is gone. I think there are a few useful idiots who have been seduced by the Russians into taking a pro-Russia foreign policy stance for various reasons, perhaps in some instances because they see some future business or lobbying benefit. Ron Johnson comes to mind. But getting an active asset over whom the Kremlin has actual *command and control* is difficult beyond belief and really almost impossible to do quietly. Everyone knew what Rohrabacher was.
Lev Parnas knows who took $$. Why not call for him to testify, bcuz he'll cooperate and has receipts
Russia's got its own thing. The biggest enemy in terms of Congress assets are Mark Zuckerberg, Jeff Bezos, and Elon Musk.
100.5
All the jelly beans shall be mine
How about QOP instead of RQP. So we can write Kevin McCarthy (Q-CA) (credit @kylegriffin1 )
I vote for this.
Or GQP either...both
That sounds too sexy because of the association with the GQ magazine.