First, much gratitude for what you do. It is making a difference.
I have a comment, which I suppose is also a question. I view the upcoming impeachment trial (under Schumer as opposed to McConnell) as a tremendous opportunity to provide the only kind of evidence to the insurrectionist subdemographic that could move the needle toward reconciliation, or, more possibly, capitulation. Calling Trump’s inner circle advisors, legal representatives, and top campaign officials as witnesses to testify, under oath, to the cynicism of The Lie *should* provide an off-ramp for many insurrectionists. But perhaps, of equal importance, it *could* provide an on-ramp to “Guilty!” votes for several R senators who would then have adequate ammo to return to their states with, and an expectation that, in 4 or especially 6 years, Trump will almost certainly be the losing ticket in any statewide election, if he retains any valence whatsoever.
My worry is that House managers will focus on the details of the crime, as laid out in the impeachment article, and only succeed in engendering resistance, and fear. The goal should be giving Rs the info that they can parlay into a safe pathway to “Yea”. The crime, itself, is self evident.
I wonder if you’ve thought about the legal strategy in this particular way? Actually I’m pretty certain you’ve thought about it in *every* particular way! I do wonder, though, if you have the same worry that I have.
I believe that, for political reasons, the Democrats will seek the tightest and shortest impeachment trial possible. In my experience, trials can get unwieldy and unpredictable fast—and that's not what the Democrats want or need. Your idea makes theoretical sense, but I think in practice would just give Trump and his team ample room for more chaos, disinformation, and provocation.
What is driving Glenn Greenwald, Aaron Mate, Michael Tracey, Taibbi, and others' skepticism of the Russia investigation/Special Counsel Investigation? Why do these people have such a different take on the matter?
I don't know. I can only say that they have repeatedly lied about the evidence, ignored evidence, refused to read evidence, and draw conclusions about what they do see (which is a small fraction of what they have been directed to look at) that are preposterous. Whether because of stupidity or bad faith or some other reason I can't fathom, they have become propagandists. It's hugely disconcerting for those who ever admired any one of them.
With the strong array of criminal exposure post presidency that you’ve discussed, how likely do you believe it is that DJT or any of his children will actually serve time for criminal charges (state or federal)? Obviously there is strong evidence for a litany of crimes but when you factor in all the lawyering and shenanigans that go on with well resourced defendants, it feels like something of a pipe dream that they will actually go to prison. Curious what your outlook is.
I think the odds are long but not—because of the state fraud charges in New York—impossible. But I do believe the cases and any appeals would drag on for 1-3 years, so there will be no "swift" justice. Total odds that *any* Trump goes to prison, in my view, is something like 25%.
I will, but probably on the main Twitter feed. I should do it more often, though, you're right! And they're hounds, so they do funny/stupid things a lot.
Trump has found quite a few seams to exploit in the Executive branch. Who are the people who have driven this behavior: ignoring subpoenas, the use of acting cabinet heads, hiding all information from the public....purging career civil service workers ....certainly trump didn’t know the ropes when he arrived. Seems as though he relied on experienced rat f——-
Thank you so much for all of the time you take to explain so many hard to grasp aspects of Trump’s criminal enterprises.
Regarding impeachment, what kind of witnesses and evidence would be presented at a Senate trial? For instance, would people like the Capital police officers who fought and were injured potentially be witnesses or who exactly might testify?
Do you believe the Trump administration had laundered classified materials for cash and favors? Do you know of any areas that he could exploit and hide from the incoming administration?
I do believe this, though I think it is almost impossible to catch—as Trump and Kushner give out intel as favors to people they want to do business with but don't reap the rewards for months or years, and likely never with an explicit, documented quid pro quo.
Even if senators and representatives object to electors, do they any power to change a state's vote or only to send the question back to the state to clarify?
Well, the actual goal was to ensure that no one got to 270 EC votes, at which point the House votes by delegation. The Republicans have more delegations. There was really never a time when anything was going to go or could have gone "back to the states." It doesn't work that way after the "safe harbor" deadline has passed in mid-December. Trump and his camp were lying about all of it and how it works.
What was in this for Giuliani and Powell? Fame? Money? Did they lose their mi DHS and believe what they said? Did they not care that reputable lawyers, former colleagues etc think they are ridiculous? How did they lose their professional dignity? (I guess this could involve many politicians but I see they want power so courted trump and his followers for money and votes).
Giuliani: money. It was always about the money. Being close to Trump has made him *unbelievably* rich via foreign clients. Powell is a true believer—she's deranged.
Something I'm curious to hear your perspective on, but it's a really dark question so I totally understand if you're not comfortable responding to it: Does 45 strike you as the type who would consider suicide as a way out of facing consequences for his criminality?
I don't believe that malignant narcissists who are also sociopaths fit the profile of someone who takes their own life. Indeed, Trump values his own life and perspective so far above anything else that the *opposite* is true: he'd let *billions* die to save himself.
Seth, you are one of my favorite people to follow on Twitter. I grew up in Manchester and lived there for the first eighteen years of my life. To step aside from all the craziness going on, what is your go to takeout in the Queen City? Manchester is truly lucky to have a bright intellectual mind like yours. Keep up the amazing work!
We really like Firefly, 900 Degrees, Gyrospot, Thousand Crane, Katmandu Spice, MUSE Bistro, and on rare occasion (when we are willing to drive for pick-up) Mint and Buba Noodles. Manchester has so many good restaurants these days, I think that per-capita the number of restaurants is right up there with Portland, Maine (which as I understand it is first in America in number of restaurants per-capita).
Thanks, Seth. I completely agree. I went to undergrad in Maine so I am quite familiar with the Portland scene, as well. Anyways, thanks for the great response and input! These are all great choices.
I had NO IDEA you were based in Manchester! I live in Hooksett. If you’re ever looking for a good locally-owned bakery, please consider trying Dulce’s on the East side. Owned by a beautiful family, their tres leches cakes are exquisite!
A while back you mentioned being “shadow banned” in reference to the stagnation and/or removal of your followers. I have noticed in the week or so your follower numbers have steadily been climbing. It seemed to the start on the same day tangerine twittler got banned. If all things were copacetic you would probably have *5 million* followers. Thank you for everything you do—you are a national treasure.
The "shadow ban" was lifted a few days after a reader first directed me to it. I lose about 40,000 followers a year to unexplained "purges" of my follower list that has to be something more than a bot purge. No idea what it is, but nothing I can do about it.
Hi Seth. What do you think happened to all the reserve vaccines? Did Trump/Kushner sell them to another country to raise personal cash? Or did they just lie about the existence of them? Thx.
You've mentioned before the idea of a new party, the 'Lincoln Party' coming into existence to oppose the Trumpist Republican party. It seems like everyone in power cares way more about keeping their power vs any sort of principles, so, how likely do you really thing such a thing would be?
I still think it's a longshot. Both the Trumpists and the Lincolnites believe they can "save" the GOP from the other and will keep trying to do that for at least the next 1-2 years. Certainly until the midterms. We'll see who wins. The Trumpists have the numbers—by a *lot*.
Hi Seth,
First, much gratitude for what you do. It is making a difference.
I have a comment, which I suppose is also a question. I view the upcoming impeachment trial (under Schumer as opposed to McConnell) as a tremendous opportunity to provide the only kind of evidence to the insurrectionist subdemographic that could move the needle toward reconciliation, or, more possibly, capitulation. Calling Trump’s inner circle advisors, legal representatives, and top campaign officials as witnesses to testify, under oath, to the cynicism of The Lie *should* provide an off-ramp for many insurrectionists. But perhaps, of equal importance, it *could* provide an on-ramp to “Guilty!” votes for several R senators who would then have adequate ammo to return to their states with, and an expectation that, in 4 or especially 6 years, Trump will almost certainly be the losing ticket in any statewide election, if he retains any valence whatsoever.
My worry is that House managers will focus on the details of the crime, as laid out in the impeachment article, and only succeed in engendering resistance, and fear. The goal should be giving Rs the info that they can parlay into a safe pathway to “Yea”. The crime, itself, is self evident.
I wonder if you’ve thought about the legal strategy in this particular way? Actually I’m pretty certain you’ve thought about it in *every* particular way! I do wonder, though, if you have the same worry that I have.
Respectfully,
Larry Bartusek
I believe that, for political reasons, the Democrats will seek the tightest and shortest impeachment trial possible. In my experience, trials can get unwieldy and unpredictable fast—and that's not what the Democrats want or need. Your idea makes theoretical sense, but I think in practice would just give Trump and his team ample room for more chaos, disinformation, and provocation.
What is driving Glenn Greenwald, Aaron Mate, Michael Tracey, Taibbi, and others' skepticism of the Russia investigation/Special Counsel Investigation? Why do these people have such a different take on the matter?
I don't know. I can only say that they have repeatedly lied about the evidence, ignored evidence, refused to read evidence, and draw conclusions about what they do see (which is a small fraction of what they have been directed to look at) that are preposterous. Whether because of stupidity or bad faith or some other reason I can't fathom, they have become propagandists. It's hugely disconcerting for those who ever admired any one of them.
Can't agree more. It boggles the mind.
With the strong array of criminal exposure post presidency that you’ve discussed, how likely do you believe it is that DJT or any of his children will actually serve time for criminal charges (state or federal)? Obviously there is strong evidence for a litany of crimes but when you factor in all the lawyering and shenanigans that go on with well resourced defendants, it feels like something of a pipe dream that they will actually go to prison. Curious what your outlook is.
I think the odds are long but not—because of the state fraud charges in New York—impossible. But I do believe the cases and any appeals would drag on for 1-3 years, so there will be no "swift" justice. Total odds that *any* Trump goes to prison, in my view, is something like 25%.
Can you share more pictures of the dogs ? Like on a walk, or if they do something funny.
I will, but probably on the main Twitter feed. I should do it more often, though, you're right! And they're hounds, so they do funny/stupid things a lot.
wonderful! animal pics sure help as a break from news
Thank you..
Trump has found quite a few seams to exploit in the Executive branch. Who are the people who have driven this behavior: ignoring subpoenas, the use of acting cabinet heads, hiding all information from the public....purging career civil service workers ....certainly trump didn’t know the ropes when he arrived. Seems as though he relied on experienced rat f——-
Thank you so much for all of the time you take to explain so many hard to grasp aspects of Trump’s criminal enterprises.
Regarding impeachment, what kind of witnesses and evidence would be presented at a Senate trial? For instance, would people like the Capital police officers who fought and were injured potentially be witnesses or who exactly might testify?
Do you believe the Trump administration had laundered classified materials for cash and favors? Do you know of any areas that he could exploit and hide from the incoming administration?
I do believe this, though I think it is almost impossible to catch—as Trump and Kushner give out intel as favors to people they want to do business with but don't reap the rewards for months or years, and likely never with an explicit, documented quid pro quo.
Even if senators and representatives object to electors, do they any power to change a state's vote or only to send the question back to the state to clarify?
Well, the actual goal was to ensure that no one got to 270 EC votes, at which point the House votes by delegation. The Republicans have more delegations. There was really never a time when anything was going to go or could have gone "back to the states." It doesn't work that way after the "safe harbor" deadline has passed in mid-December. Trump and his camp were lying about all of it and how it works.
What was in this for Giuliani and Powell? Fame? Money? Did they lose their mi DHS and believe what they said? Did they not care that reputable lawyers, former colleagues etc think they are ridiculous? How did they lose their professional dignity? (I guess this could involve many politicians but I see they want power so courted trump and his followers for money and votes).
Giuliani: money. It was always about the money. Being close to Trump has made him *unbelievably* rich via foreign clients. Powell is a true believer—she's deranged.
Typo-did they lose their minds?
Something I'm curious to hear your perspective on, but it's a really dark question so I totally understand if you're not comfortable responding to it: Does 45 strike you as the type who would consider suicide as a way out of facing consequences for his criminality?
I don't believe that malignant narcissists who are also sociopaths fit the profile of someone who takes their own life. Indeed, Trump values his own life and perspective so far above anything else that the *opposite* is true: he'd let *billions* die to save himself.
Seth, you are one of my favorite people to follow on Twitter. I grew up in Manchester and lived there for the first eighteen years of my life. To step aside from all the craziness going on, what is your go to takeout in the Queen City? Manchester is truly lucky to have a bright intellectual mind like yours. Keep up the amazing work!
We really like Firefly, 900 Degrees, Gyrospot, Thousand Crane, Katmandu Spice, MUSE Bistro, and on rare occasion (when we are willing to drive for pick-up) Mint and Buba Noodles. Manchester has so many good restaurants these days, I think that per-capita the number of restaurants is right up there with Portland, Maine (which as I understand it is first in America in number of restaurants per-capita).
Thanks, Seth. I completely agree. I went to undergrad in Maine so I am quite familiar with the Portland scene, as well. Anyways, thanks for the great response and input! These are all great choices.
I had NO IDEA you were based in Manchester! I live in Hooksett. If you’re ever looking for a good locally-owned bakery, please consider trying Dulce’s on the East side. Owned by a beautiful family, their tres leches cakes are exquisite!
what's the deal with last minute appointments? is the NSA appointment permanent, or are they covering tracks in the final hours?
I think Biden will fire Ellis ASAP. And yes, I think they want to destroy evidence in some fashion or another.
A while back you mentioned being “shadow banned” in reference to the stagnation and/or removal of your followers. I have noticed in the week or so your follower numbers have steadily been climbing. It seemed to the start on the same day tangerine twittler got banned. If all things were copacetic you would probably have *5 million* followers. Thank you for everything you do—you are a national treasure.
The "shadow ban" was lifted a few days after a reader first directed me to it. I lose about 40,000 followers a year to unexplained "purges" of my follower list that has to be something more than a bot purge. No idea what it is, but nothing I can do about it.
What is(are) your favorite song(s) by The Smiths?
"There Is a Light That Never Goes Out"
Hi Seth. What do you think happened to all the reserve vaccines? Did Trump/Kushner sell them to another country to raise personal cash? Or did they just lie about the existence of them? Thx.
They just lied. They never had it.
Thank you.
You've mentioned before the idea of a new party, the 'Lincoln Party' coming into existence to oppose the Trumpist Republican party. It seems like everyone in power cares way more about keeping their power vs any sort of principles, so, how likely do you really thing such a thing would be?
I still think it's a longshot. Both the Trumpists and the Lincolnites believe they can "save" the GOP from the other and will keep trying to do that for at least the next 1-2 years. Certainly until the midterms. We'll see who wins. The Trumpists have the numbers—by a *lot*.