In this Q&A for full subscribers to the Proof Substack, I answer your questions about the ongoing pro-Trump domestic insurgency in the State of Arizona.
Do you see any way for the federal government to get involved in this AZ farce now without handing the insurgents a huge talking point? And will an after-the-fact FBI investigation be a sufficient remedy?
After-the-fact investigations cannot possibly gather the same degree of evidence relating to a crime-in-progress—which this appears to be—as a contemporaneous, in situ investigation. The Brennan Center is asking DOJ to urgently at least send *observers* to Phoenix. I think this is absolutely essentially, especially as if the Cyber Ninjas try to keep the feds out (via litigation by the Arizona GOP) is looks suspicious, and even more importantly ballot destruction or tampering could be happening *right now*. This said, destruction of evidence as a *legal* matter—as far as the actual execution of a federal statute for potential criminal penalties is concerned—may require the knowledge of actors that a federal investigation is ongoing. So one reason for the DOJ to send observers to Phoenix or even open a formal investigation of the Arizona GOP's handling of ballots is that it triggers obstruction, witness tampering, destruction of evidence, and making false statements statutes (plus others) that may not be in play until DOJ has formally and publicly taken the field. One of the problems here is that the election is over and, arguably, nothing that comes from the audit is (a) part of the election, (b) legally relevant to the election, or (c) even capable of affecting the election, so the argument would be that the "mens rea" (mental state) required for most election-interference statutes, state and federal, i.e. the intent to alter the outcome of an election or alter "active" ballots, can't be present.
This is freaking me out. I can most definitely see the GQP doing this in NH, GA, PA, WI, MI and throwing us into chaos with GQPrs coming out guns blazing for revenge. Why hasn’t the DOJ stepped in to stop this dangerous precedent?
I can only speculate, but the fact that there is no way this could *legally* alter the 2020 election result, and the fact that DOJ is already so vigorously pursuing January 6 insurrectionists (including, Garland implies but has not yet shown with action, plotters) could make DOJ feel like it should take a pass on this one as a "state issue" with local political implications but no national electoral (or national security) implications. I worry that this assessment by DOJ is wrongheaded, if well-intentioned.
Wrong headed is right. It's encouraging state GOP elected majorities to pass voter suppression bills that will legally alter future election results. It's like hearing a well verified bank robbery plot but waiting til the robbers are in the get away car to do anything!
There's an argument to be made for this, as attorneys can't participate in ongoing or future crimes, and can't keep confidence with those committing such crimes under the "crime-fraud" except to attorney-client privilege, so anyone getting involved with these efforts at this point really *should* feel like they're slapping their bar card down on the table and risking it being taken away.
This is a total disgrace. I’m thinking cellphone towers have weakened the minds of the masses, either directly or indirectly. Indirectly being the infrastructure for polluting the truth with internet garbage. I’m not sure humans can handle all this technology and internet stuff.. but since it is here and so are these Trump zealots, we must fight at the election box and render them moot.
I am dedicating my next two years to assisting in the efforts for Democrats to win 5 more House seats and pickup 2 more Senators. I can be done! And if it does happen we will protect the concept of Democracy. Join me with your efforts.
Seth I live in Maricopa County. Is there any hope of forming a class action law suit against the Kelli Ward GOP for desecrating my ballot and/or ANYTHING in this insane affair?
I think that's an interesting question! The possible legal hurdle (and I'm just musing; I don't intend this as legal advice, and you should seek out an attorney in your area if you want Arizona-relevant legal advice from an Arizona-admitted legal practitioner) is that because the 2020 election is over, the court might say that there is no obvious "harm" to 2020 voters *even if* their ballots are destroyed through mishandling. What would probably be required is a showing that the Arizona GOP plans to call a special session of the Arizona legislature to (illegally) strip Biden of its EVs if "fraud" is found in the audit. At that point, any Arizona voter in Maricopa County could *theoretically* argue that they've been harmed. Of course, injunctions are *meant* to provide against imminent and foreseeable harm, so it could be that a class action now *would* succeed by citing the public statements of Arizona GOP officials about their interest in and willingness to call a special session to do what Trump *publicly said* on January 6 he wanted: to "return the [EVs] to the states." I believe Arizona reps Biggs and Gosar and Lesko have made similar comments, which could establish foreseeable harm. But Arizona voters should talk to Arizona lawyers to see if in practice a class action could really be brought.
Have you heard that one of the guys leading this effort Rep Anthony Kern was photographed on restricted Capitol grounds cheering on the insurrectionists ?
Also, I've been tracking Ali Alexander's six degrees of sedition (& Michael Coudrey) since this summer when I encountered Ali's pre-election efforts to stop Biden as a Biden research volunteer. I previously contacted You here w/ a couple things I'd run across like the info re: Rogan O'Handley meeting w/ Trump on the 5th and the link to Ali admitting he spoke w/ Kimberly Guilfoyle & Sec def Miller admitting he & Kash Patel met w/ Trump Jan 5th but didn't mention the meeting on official DOD timeline; I have jpgs, archived social media posts etc saved as PDF's that will prove Ali was on a conference call w/ someone at DHS phone number Dec 22nd when Trump met w/ Gosar, Biggs, Gaetz etc. Also, info that suggests early coordination w/ Trump campaign and Ali Alexander's team of grifters & a reason why Txtwire probably became involved that I hope to share but I can't figure if your website contact form would accommodate a transfer of it. Finally, Finchem might have be a connection between Stop the Steal & Ammon Bundy's People's Rights via COWS. Please advise best way to proceed.
These are things I'd like to see. Is there any reason not to post them on social media so that they can be corroborated via crowdsourcing (WayBackMachine, etc.)? Or, you could create a Twitter account just to post such evidence and then give me (and anyone else you will) its handle via my personal website's contact page. That December 22nd evidence... would be significant.
Given that the chain of custody has been broken, why aren't the ballots now simply regarded as invalid for any purpose. It means that Maricopa will not have retained the ballots for the required 22 months, but they were exculpated by the judge ruling the subpoena valid. So just declare the ballots to be no longer part of the authentic voting record.
Still, there's the issue of the machines. They, too, have to be under the suspicion of tampering. How will they be brought back into compliance?
I haven't looked into this enough to know if you have it right—I just know that on February 26, a Maricopa County judge held that the state legislature's subpoena for the ballots was legal and had to be honored, which would seem to suggest that (in that judge's view, at least) the transfer of the ballots from the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors to the state legislature didn't *necessarily* break chain of custody (which, to be clear, is an evidentiary issue that gets litigated after the fact in every instance, meaning that it doesn't per se, automatically, in-advance remove evidence from being considered by a court, and certainly not by state legislators, who can call anything they want "evidence" because they're in a purely political realm). That said, there could be dicta or a holding in an Arizona opinion I haven't seen yet that addresses the chain of custody issue directly. Let me know if you find one.
Why can’t we charge Trump with treason. He knew about Russia’s efforts to subvert the 2016 election but did not snitch. He aided and abetted our enemy.
I have never believed the statute only applied to a declaration of war against a country.
If charged and convicted it takes the teeth out of these autocratic unconstitutional efforts.
Well, that *is* what the statute requires—full stop. It would require amendment to include cyber-war, which arguably is an amendment that should be considered. But understand that Treason (the statute) is not "treason" (the English word), and I believe all Americans can fairly consider Trump a "traitor" to his country who is not just "treacherous" but perhaps even (in the nonlegal sense) "treasonous." It becomes a semantic issue at some point, however.
Aren't there laws about sedition that should adequately cover the problem? Personally, I'd like to see the Isle of St. Helena re-activated for folks that need to be sequestered from the rest of civilization. "Go, peaceably, and we won't do worse to you." I thought that would stop applying once Biden was sworn in. Maybe it still applies. A gilded cage just to keep him out of our hair.
What do you think could have been done at the outset to prevent this farce from even happening? Was there a viable intervention method that could have been pursued? Something that could be used if other states look they they are going to catch the disease?
Great question. Honestly, the Arizona Democratic Party did try to fight this from the beginning, so it's not that the ADP wasn't taking it seriously. On the other hand, just yesterday the ADP could have stopped the audit, at least temporarily, if it had put up $1 million in prospective liquidated damages, and it refused—it part because that's a lot of money for a state party. If the national party, and Democratic donors, were engaged on this issue as they should be, candidly that money would have been put up. So there's a question about whether the national Democratic Party is doing the work it should be doing now to determine which funding streams would fund legal challenges, liquidated-damage orders like this one, and so on. There *needs* to be an expectation that Trump was telling the truth in this much: that these efforts will spread to GA, PA, MI, WI, NH, and possibly elsewhere. I also think that if DOJ opened an investigation now—more than just sending observers to Phoenix, which it needed to do yesterday—it might chill other state legislatures from playing this very dangerous and very likely illegal game with the 2020 election results.
Why are they being allowed to do this farce audit? Can’t the FBI or Justice Dept investigate this? Any luck on finding Ali? Do you forward your information to the FBI?
I've answered the first two elsewhere in this Q&A, so I'll focus on the third (I have seen tips but nothing solid yet, mostly the reporting is about his ongoing funding and social-media use but not about attempting to find his location, as social media platforms could treat that as dangerous doxxing) and the fourth (my understanding from contact with members of Congress, national security reporters, and journalists with friends in law enforcement is that the things I'm writing are seen by those who need to see them eventually; I don't want to be contacting the FBI every time I write an article, nor—based on my own brief experience dealing with FBI agents when I was an attorney—would they want this). I think the best thing for me to do is to build this media outlet to the point that it is near-universally turned to by those who want information about the insurrection that is fully sourced and reliable. As one of the most-read publications on the entire Substack platform, and as someone who has been followed by and amplified by major-media in the past, I think bringing this publication to that sort of visibility will ensure that an even larger group who people who need to see this data see it, rather than spending my time (instead of researching, writing, and doing my other jobs) individually trying to reach out to the many, many stakeholders who could benefit from this information.
The end game for Trump is an announcement that he won Arizona, momentum for running the same scam in sufficient other states (GA, PA, MI, WI, NH) to claim that he won the election, and the destruction of the Biden presidency—purely out of spite—by the fact that by then nearly 100% of Republicans (rather than just the current 70%) would consider Biden illegitimate. Trump likely thinks this would doom Biden's agenda, destroy his approval ratings, make him vulnerable in 2024, change the history of the 2024 election, validate hundreds of claims Trump made in 2020 and 2021 that he was b*llshitting on at the time and make them seem (to his fans and perhaps even some gullible independents or moderates) "plausible," and put him in an even stronger position with respect to the national GOP, state parties, a possible media empire, international business deals via the Trump Organization, and so on. But we also have to accept something else: Trump is motivated by spite, loves chaos, and is aroused by violence. Even absolute bedlam serves his deranged "interests" because many of those interests aren't rational, they're pathological. So looking for "sense" here may be a search for fool's gold in the end.
As awful as it would be, how would massive civil unrest help Trump? He cannot impose martial law now, and I would think the majority that voted for Biden would be disgusted by his supporters’ violence.
A very, very good question! My read of him, as one of his presidential historians, is that (a) it would flatter his vanity, (b) it would appeal to his love of chaos and violence, (c) it would seal in the histories of at least the far right a sense that he never "lost" in 2020 (and Trump is happy to live the rest of his life living exclusively in that alternative timeline), (d) it would guarantee him the 2024 nomination if he wants it (as it would "seal" the idea—and this is really important—that, to an overwhelming majority of Republicans, he *is* the legitimate sitting president), (e) it would bring him infinitely more money through fundraising for potential future campaigns, (f) it would increase his net worth by making him even more a figure of legend and therefore his properties and assets even more likely to be bought/frequented by his supporters, (g) it would give him an amazing "conceit" and narrative for a new media outlet ("this outlet accepts that the current government is legitimate and that Donald Trump is president") which would enrich him greatly, (h) it would ensure that he is the ultimately powerbroker in the GOP *forever* because he has an actual army at his disposal (i) it would cast spite at the whole country and all GOP politicians (and Trump is motivated by deranged spite more than almost any emotion, and he feels a ton of it over a loss that was actually 100% his fault), (j) there would be some insane longshot possibility of a degree of civil unrest that somehow catapulted him back into power through means I can't even begin to imagine and sound ludicrous even to contemplate (limited secession, a civil war, or, less wildly implausibly, election to some office he thinks might profit him or be a springboard to another POTUS run like the senate or a governorship), and (k) other nefarious reasons we can't imagine because Trump keeps most of his business and interests and deals illicit. Those are just a few examples.
In all of your work on the former guy and his allies and co-criminals, have you been paying attention to giv kristi noem and her role in all of this? She is his biggest fan/supporter and was in D.C. on Jan 5.
I have not come across illicit actions by her in my research. My sense is that she is a radical Trumpist who is nevertheless not inside his inner circle. Her play, for now, seems to be hoping that she is a VP candidate for someone (e.g., Pence) in 2024. I am not yet convinced that she would agree to run with Trump, as every one in a while one gets a sense in her public statements and actions that she is trying to riding the Trump Train without becoming a co-conductor. But—that said—I may be giving her far too much credit.
I read that some of the people going through the ballots were not to have black pens available ANYWHERE... only red. But ballot counters were observed black pens. Have you seen this verified? We know the total thing is suspect anyway. At what point will it be considered corrupted? Of course, we know it is already a sham because it’s basically a GOP smoke and mirrors job.
Arizona law says blue or black pens can't be in ballot-counting areas at *all*. Cyber Ninjas began with its volunteers (which include a known January 6 insurrectionist, Anthony Kern) using blue pens. After Jen Fifield of the Arizona Republic drew this to the attention of Doug Logan (Cyber Ninja owner), they (a) banned Fifield from giving any more updates from the venue and (b) switched to red and green pens, which are permissible. We don't know if any ballots were tampered with before the change, but also (frankly) don't know exactly to what extent the Arizona GOP wants to, needs to, or legally must adhere to Arizona regulations intended for pre-certification recounts rather than post-election audits.
The real reason cannot be determined at this point. The _stated_ reason is to find non-existent water marks on the ballots in order to authenticate them. They've stopped using the UV light.
"bigly"? Dunno. The main focus is to find hanky-panky and I'm sure they will at least fabricate enough to be able to say that there was some. :)
Arizona is one of the states with the most active pro-Trump paramilitary groups (others include FL, NC, OH, and MI). The Proud Boys have a huge presence there. If you'd asked me on January 7, I would have said that Phoenix ranks *number one* in the state capital most susceptible to a January 6-like event (Michigan would rank second, Florida third).
Do you see any way for the federal government to get involved in this AZ farce now without handing the insurgents a huge talking point? And will an after-the-fact FBI investigation be a sufficient remedy?
After-the-fact investigations cannot possibly gather the same degree of evidence relating to a crime-in-progress—which this appears to be—as a contemporaneous, in situ investigation. The Brennan Center is asking DOJ to urgently at least send *observers* to Phoenix. I think this is absolutely essentially, especially as if the Cyber Ninjas try to keep the feds out (via litigation by the Arizona GOP) is looks suspicious, and even more importantly ballot destruction or tampering could be happening *right now*. This said, destruction of evidence as a *legal* matter—as far as the actual execution of a federal statute for potential criminal penalties is concerned—may require the knowledge of actors that a federal investigation is ongoing. So one reason for the DOJ to send observers to Phoenix or even open a formal investigation of the Arizona GOP's handling of ballots is that it triggers obstruction, witness tampering, destruction of evidence, and making false statements statutes (plus others) that may not be in play until DOJ has formally and publicly taken the field. One of the problems here is that the election is over and, arguably, nothing that comes from the audit is (a) part of the election, (b) legally relevant to the election, or (c) even capable of affecting the election, so the argument would be that the "mens rea" (mental state) required for most election-interference statutes, state and federal, i.e. the intent to alter the outcome of an election or alter "active" ballots, can't be present.
This is freaking me out. I can most definitely see the GQP doing this in NH, GA, PA, WI, MI and throwing us into chaos with GQPrs coming out guns blazing for revenge. Why hasn’t the DOJ stepped in to stop this dangerous precedent?
I can only speculate, but the fact that there is no way this could *legally* alter the 2020 election result, and the fact that DOJ is already so vigorously pursuing January 6 insurrectionists (including, Garland implies but has not yet shown with action, plotters) could make DOJ feel like it should take a pass on this one as a "state issue" with local political implications but no national electoral (or national security) implications. I worry that this assessment by DOJ is wrongheaded, if well-intentioned.
Wrong headed is right. It's encouraging state GOP elected majorities to pass voter suppression bills that will legally alter future election results. It's like hearing a well verified bank robbery plot but waiting til the robbers are in the get away car to do anything!
Any attorney still going along with Trump’s scheming Big Lie should be disbarred.
There's an argument to be made for this, as attorneys can't participate in ongoing or future crimes, and can't keep confidence with those committing such crimes under the "crime-fraud" except to attorney-client privilege, so anyone getting involved with these efforts at this point really *should* feel like they're slapping their bar card down on the table and risking it being taken away.
What the heck is Rudy Giuliani doing still be a member of the bar licensed to practice? He's broken every ethical requirement.
This is a total disgrace. I’m thinking cellphone towers have weakened the minds of the masses, either directly or indirectly. Indirectly being the infrastructure for polluting the truth with internet garbage. I’m not sure humans can handle all this technology and internet stuff.. but since it is here and so are these Trump zealots, we must fight at the election box and render them moot.
I am dedicating my next two years to assisting in the efforts for Democrats to win 5 more House seats and pickup 2 more Senators. I can be done! And if it does happen we will protect the concept of Democracy. Join me with your efforts.
Seth I live in Maricopa County. Is there any hope of forming a class action law suit against the Kelli Ward GOP for desecrating my ballot and/or ANYTHING in this insane affair?
I think that's an interesting question! The possible legal hurdle (and I'm just musing; I don't intend this as legal advice, and you should seek out an attorney in your area if you want Arizona-relevant legal advice from an Arizona-admitted legal practitioner) is that because the 2020 election is over, the court might say that there is no obvious "harm" to 2020 voters *even if* their ballots are destroyed through mishandling. What would probably be required is a showing that the Arizona GOP plans to call a special session of the Arizona legislature to (illegally) strip Biden of its EVs if "fraud" is found in the audit. At that point, any Arizona voter in Maricopa County could *theoretically* argue that they've been harmed. Of course, injunctions are *meant* to provide against imminent and foreseeable harm, so it could be that a class action now *would* succeed by citing the public statements of Arizona GOP officials about their interest in and willingness to call a special session to do what Trump *publicly said* on January 6 he wanted: to "return the [EVs] to the states." I believe Arizona reps Biggs and Gosar and Lesko have made similar comments, which could establish foreseeable harm. But Arizona voters should talk to Arizona lawyers to see if in practice a class action could really be brought.
How would you show that a plaintiff's ballot that had been counted is now damaged by defendants' actions? The defendants have the ballots!
The only possible way is with archived ballot images. Won't happen.
Thanks - Any AZ lawyers on this thread today??
Check out @JoanGreeneAZ, Andy Biggs' regular opponent. She has a few things to say.
I just read her Twitter account and she is not working on anything
November, 2022 is yet a few months away.
okay
Have you heard that one of the guys leading this effort Rep Anthony Kern was photographed on restricted Capitol grounds cheering on the insurrectionists ?
Also, I've been tracking Ali Alexander's six degrees of sedition (& Michael Coudrey) since this summer when I encountered Ali's pre-election efforts to stop Biden as a Biden research volunteer. I previously contacted You here w/ a couple things I'd run across like the info re: Rogan O'Handley meeting w/ Trump on the 5th and the link to Ali admitting he spoke w/ Kimberly Guilfoyle & Sec def Miller admitting he & Kash Patel met w/ Trump Jan 5th but didn't mention the meeting on official DOD timeline; I have jpgs, archived social media posts etc saved as PDF's that will prove Ali was on a conference call w/ someone at DHS phone number Dec 22nd when Trump met w/ Gosar, Biggs, Gaetz etc. Also, info that suggests early coordination w/ Trump campaign and Ali Alexander's team of grifters & a reason why Txtwire probably became involved that I hope to share but I can't figure if your website contact form would accommodate a transfer of it. Finally, Finchem might have be a connection between Stop the Steal & Ammon Bundy's People's Rights via COWS. Please advise best way to proceed.
These are things I'd like to see. Is there any reason not to post them on social media so that they can be corroborated via crowdsourcing (WayBackMachine, etc.)? Or, you could create a Twitter account just to post such evidence and then give me (and anyone else you will) its handle via my personal website's contact page. That December 22nd evidence... would be significant.
I'll reach out via your site then- I Mainly wasn't sure how to best break they via Twitter w/your feed being so crazy!
Given that the chain of custody has been broken, why aren't the ballots now simply regarded as invalid for any purpose. It means that Maricopa will not have retained the ballots for the required 22 months, but they were exculpated by the judge ruling the subpoena valid. So just declare the ballots to be no longer part of the authentic voting record.
Still, there's the issue of the machines. They, too, have to be under the suspicion of tampering. How will they be brought back into compliance?
I haven't looked into this enough to know if you have it right—I just know that on February 26, a Maricopa County judge held that the state legislature's subpoena for the ballots was legal and had to be honored, which would seem to suggest that (in that judge's view, at least) the transfer of the ballots from the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors to the state legislature didn't *necessarily* break chain of custody (which, to be clear, is an evidentiary issue that gets litigated after the fact in every instance, meaning that it doesn't per se, automatically, in-advance remove evidence from being considered by a court, and certainly not by state legislators, who can call anything they want "evidence" because they're in a purely political realm). That said, there could be dicta or a holding in an Arizona opinion I haven't seen yet that addresses the chain of custody issue directly. Let me know if you find one.
OK. I won't go looking, though. IANAL. :) WRT the machines, I've not been able to prod anyone into any sort of speculation.
Why can’t we charge Trump with treason. He knew about Russia’s efforts to subvert the 2016 election but did not snitch. He aided and abetted our enemy.
I have never believed the statute only applied to a declaration of war against a country.
If charged and convicted it takes the teeth out of these autocratic unconstitutional efforts.
Well, that *is* what the statute requires—full stop. It would require amendment to include cyber-war, which arguably is an amendment that should be considered. But understand that Treason (the statute) is not "treason" (the English word), and I believe all Americans can fairly consider Trump a "traitor" to his country who is not just "treacherous" but perhaps even (in the nonlegal sense) "treasonous." It becomes a semantic issue at some point, however.
Aren't there laws about sedition that should adequately cover the problem? Personally, I'd like to see the Isle of St. Helena re-activated for folks that need to be sequestered from the rest of civilization. "Go, peaceably, and we won't do worse to you." I thought that would stop applying once Biden was sworn in. Maybe it still applies. A gilded cage just to keep him out of our hair.
What do you think could have been done at the outset to prevent this farce from even happening? Was there a viable intervention method that could have been pursued? Something that could be used if other states look they they are going to catch the disease?
Great question. Honestly, the Arizona Democratic Party did try to fight this from the beginning, so it's not that the ADP wasn't taking it seriously. On the other hand, just yesterday the ADP could have stopped the audit, at least temporarily, if it had put up $1 million in prospective liquidated damages, and it refused—it part because that's a lot of money for a state party. If the national party, and Democratic donors, were engaged on this issue as they should be, candidly that money would have been put up. So there's a question about whether the national Democratic Party is doing the work it should be doing now to determine which funding streams would fund legal challenges, liquidated-damage orders like this one, and so on. There *needs* to be an expectation that Trump was telling the truth in this much: that these efforts will spread to GA, PA, MI, WI, NH, and possibly elsewhere. I also think that if DOJ opened an investigation now—more than just sending observers to Phoenix, which it needed to do yesterday—it might chill other state legislatures from playing this very dangerous and very likely illegal game with the 2020 election results.
Why are they being allowed to do this farce audit? Can’t the FBI or Justice Dept investigate this? Any luck on finding Ali? Do you forward your information to the FBI?
I've answered the first two elsewhere in this Q&A, so I'll focus on the third (I have seen tips but nothing solid yet, mostly the reporting is about his ongoing funding and social-media use but not about attempting to find his location, as social media platforms could treat that as dangerous doxxing) and the fourth (my understanding from contact with members of Congress, national security reporters, and journalists with friends in law enforcement is that the things I'm writing are seen by those who need to see them eventually; I don't want to be contacting the FBI every time I write an article, nor—based on my own brief experience dealing with FBI agents when I was an attorney—would they want this). I think the best thing for me to do is to build this media outlet to the point that it is near-universally turned to by those who want information about the insurrection that is fully sourced and reliable. As one of the most-read publications on the entire Substack platform, and as someone who has been followed by and amplified by major-media in the past, I think bringing this publication to that sort of visibility will ensure that an even larger group who people who need to see this data see it, rather than spending my time (instead of researching, writing, and doing my other jobs) individually trying to reach out to the many, many stakeholders who could benefit from this information.
What will be the end game here? When this crock of a recount inevitably discovers irregularities or even a win by the former guy?
The end game for Trump is an announcement that he won Arizona, momentum for running the same scam in sufficient other states (GA, PA, MI, WI, NH) to claim that he won the election, and the destruction of the Biden presidency—purely out of spite—by the fact that by then nearly 100% of Republicans (rather than just the current 70%) would consider Biden illegitimate. Trump likely thinks this would doom Biden's agenda, destroy his approval ratings, make him vulnerable in 2024, change the history of the 2024 election, validate hundreds of claims Trump made in 2020 and 2021 that he was b*llshitting on at the time and make them seem (to his fans and perhaps even some gullible independents or moderates) "plausible," and put him in an even stronger position with respect to the national GOP, state parties, a possible media empire, international business deals via the Trump Organization, and so on. But we also have to accept something else: Trump is motivated by spite, loves chaos, and is aroused by violence. Even absolute bedlam serves his deranged "interests" because many of those interests aren't rational, they're pathological. So looking for "sense" here may be a search for fool's gold in the end.
As awful as it would be, how would massive civil unrest help Trump? He cannot impose martial law now, and I would think the majority that voted for Biden would be disgusted by his supporters’ violence.
A very, very good question! My read of him, as one of his presidential historians, is that (a) it would flatter his vanity, (b) it would appeal to his love of chaos and violence, (c) it would seal in the histories of at least the far right a sense that he never "lost" in 2020 (and Trump is happy to live the rest of his life living exclusively in that alternative timeline), (d) it would guarantee him the 2024 nomination if he wants it (as it would "seal" the idea—and this is really important—that, to an overwhelming majority of Republicans, he *is* the legitimate sitting president), (e) it would bring him infinitely more money through fundraising for potential future campaigns, (f) it would increase his net worth by making him even more a figure of legend and therefore his properties and assets even more likely to be bought/frequented by his supporters, (g) it would give him an amazing "conceit" and narrative for a new media outlet ("this outlet accepts that the current government is legitimate and that Donald Trump is president") which would enrich him greatly, (h) it would ensure that he is the ultimately powerbroker in the GOP *forever* because he has an actual army at his disposal (i) it would cast spite at the whole country and all GOP politicians (and Trump is motivated by deranged spite more than almost any emotion, and he feels a ton of it over a loss that was actually 100% his fault), (j) there would be some insane longshot possibility of a degree of civil unrest that somehow catapulted him back into power through means I can't even begin to imagine and sound ludicrous even to contemplate (limited secession, a civil war, or, less wildly implausibly, election to some office he thinks might profit him or be a springboard to another POTUS run like the senate or a governorship), and (k) other nefarious reasons we can't imagine because Trump keeps most of his business and interests and deals illicit. Those are just a few examples.
A very, very *HORRIBLE* answer. Fitting, though. Also, there are 15 more letters.
Sometimes the truth IS horrible
Seems like a good summary -- mine may have been shorter .... Cuz he's a di*k
In all of your work on the former guy and his allies and co-criminals, have you been paying attention to giv kristi noem and her role in all of this? She is his biggest fan/supporter and was in D.C. on Jan 5.
I have not come across illicit actions by her in my research. My sense is that she is a radical Trumpist who is nevertheless not inside his inner circle. Her play, for now, seems to be hoping that she is a VP candidate for someone (e.g., Pence) in 2024. I am not yet convinced that she would agree to run with Trump, as every one in a while one gets a sense in her public statements and actions that she is trying to riding the Trump Train without becoming a co-conductor. But—that said—I may be giving her far too much credit.
*gov
I read that some of the people going through the ballots were not to have black pens available ANYWHERE... only red. But ballot counters were observed black pens. Have you seen this verified? We know the total thing is suspect anyway. At what point will it be considered corrupted? Of course, we know it is already a sham because it’s basically a GOP smoke and mirrors job.
Arizona law says blue or black pens can't be in ballot-counting areas at *all*. Cyber Ninjas began with its volunteers (which include a known January 6 insurrectionist, Anthony Kern) using blue pens. After Jen Fifield of the Arizona Republic drew this to the attention of Doug Logan (Cyber Ninja owner), they (a) banned Fifield from giving any more updates from the venue and (b) switched to red and green pens, which are permissible. We don't know if any ballots were tampered with before the change, but also (frankly) don't know exactly to what extent the Arizona GOP wants to, needs to, or legally must adhere to Arizona regulations intended for pre-certification recounts rather than post-election audits.
What was the reason behind using ultraviolet light when they began the latest fraudulent ballot review??
Also, what happens when they are done and it's "discovered" that djt Lost Billy??
They said it was to look for watermarks. When they were told Arizona doesn't use them, they seemed confused. It is widely believed that Cyber Ninjas was actually working off the QAnon conspiracy theory discussed here (Doug Logan of Cyber Ninjas is a follower of QAnon and Ron Watkins, the man near-universally believed to be "Q"): https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/11/10/fact-check-false-qanon-claim-trump-watermarked-mail-ballots/6226310002/
The real reason cannot be determined at this point. The _stated_ reason is to find non-existent water marks on the ballots in order to authenticate them. They've stopped using the UV light.
"bigly"? Dunno. The main focus is to find hanky-panky and I'm sure they will at least fabricate enough to be able to say that there was some. :)
Do you know if Arizona is ground zero for militia groups..preparing for civil war?
Arizona is one of the states with the most active pro-Trump paramilitary groups (others include FL, NC, OH, and MI). The Proud Boys have a huge presence there. If you'd asked me on January 7, I would have said that Phoenix ranks *number one* in the state capital most susceptible to a January 6-like event (Michigan would rank second, Florida third).
And People's Rights
We have the added tensions regarding the border. https://www.facebook.com/groups/104775726228265
Not overtly in Cave Creek, a huge Bikers for Trump proving ground
actually, driving around in Payson last weekend I was taken with the large number of tattered Trump flags still flying at people's houses